Ultima Markets Daily Market Insights – 14 August 2026

Another Inflation Print Anchors Rate Hold Expectations

Global financial markets headed into Friday trading with strong bullish momentum following a second consecutive disinflationary surprise from the U.S. Following Wednesday’s tame CPI, Thursday’s softer-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) report reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming September policy meeting.

U.S. July PPI Breakdown:

• Headline PPI MoM: Flat at 0.0% (vs. +0.2% expected)
• Headline PPI YoY: Slowed sharply to 4.7% (vs. 4.9% expected, down from 5.5% in June)
• Core PPI YoY: Eased to 4.2% (down from 4.7% in June)

According to the latest CME FedWatch data, September Fed rate hike odds dropped to ~35%, while the probability of a rate hold surged to ~65%.

With aggressive Fed tightening risks continuing to recede, risk sentiment across global asset classes has received a welcome boost. The retreat in rate hike expectations continues to underpin U.S. equity markets while keeping structural pressure on the U.S. Dollar.

FX, Equities & Commodities Technical Insights

U.S. Dollar Index (USDX): Below 100.00 as Downside Bias Prevails

The Dollar Index remains locked in a weak consolidation pattern beneath the pivotal 100.00 psychological resistance barrier. As rate hike odds diminish, the path of least resistance for the Greenback remains tilted to the downside.

USDX, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

Technical resistance continues to strictly cap rallies below 100.00. The broader macro narrative favors a “sell-on-rally” strategy beneath 100.00, with a sustained breakdown below 99.50 opening the door toward 99.00.

Ideally, traders can wait for a decisive technical breakout of the 99.50 – 100.00 consolidation range.

Nasdaq 100: Reclaims 30,000; Bulls Eye Trend Extension

Easing interest rate pressures have reinvigorated tech valuations and broader equity market sentiment, with the S&P 500 setting another record high while allowing the Nasdaq 100 Index to decisively reclaim the major 30,000 psychological barrier.

NAS100, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

Reclaiming 30,000 restores strong bullish momentum technically to the technology sector. Intraday traders can now track the prevailing uptrend on lower timeframes, utilizing minor pullbacks toward the 30,000 or 29,800 retest zones for momentum long setups as long as the primary 29,000 structural support floor holds.

Similarly, intraday traders can track the S&P 500 for aligned momentum setups.

Gold: Pullback Amid Profit-Taking; $4,250–$4,300 Support in Focus

Over in precious metals, despite easing rate hike bets providing a favorable long-term backdrop, Gold prices experienced a brief pullback, driven primarily by profit-taking and a classic “sell-the-news” dynamic.

XAUUSD, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

The recent pullback represents a healthy technical consolidation following several days of parabolic upward moves.

While short-term profit-taking may induce further intraday pullbacks, the broader narrative remains constructive for Gold as long as the U.S. Dollar faces top-heavy pressure.

Traders should monitor the $4,250 – $4,300 structural support zone for potential stabilization and buy-on-dip opportunities as the primary uptrend reasserts itself.

Market Summary & Key Highlights Today

Markets close out the week on a firm risk-on footing, buoyed by double disinflation releases that have cemented expectations for a September Fed pause.

Broad market sentiment is expected to remain positive through Friday, setting up major equity indices to close the week on a firm, positive tone. Meanwhile, traders should keep a close eye on the Dollar and Gold as these asset classes navigate this evolving macro narrative.

What to Watch Today:

• USDX Resistance Below 100.00: Monitor if 100.00 continues to cap Dollar rallies and whether 99.50 breaks to extend the downtrend.
• Nasdaq 100 Hold of 30,000: Track whether tech bulls can maintain acceptance above 30,000 to validate the breakout.
• Gold Retest of $4,250–$4,300 Support Band: Watch for price action around $4,300 and $4,250 to gauge where buyers step back in following profit-taking.

Disclaimer

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.