US CPI In-Line, PPI Next; Dollar Tests 100 Resistance

Ultima Markets Daily Market Insights – 13 August 2026

Tame CPI Relieves Risk Assets as PPI Takes Center Stage

Global markets traded on a cautiously positive note on Wednesday after the highly anticipated U.S. July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report landed precisely in line with consensus. The tame inflation print offered relief across risk assets, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at its September meeting following last week’s soft labor data.

U.S. July CPI Breakdown:

• Headline CPI YoY: Rose 3.4% (vs. 3.4% expected, down from 3.5% in June)
• Core CPI YoY: Rose 2.5% (vs. 2.5% expected, down from 2.6% in June)
• CME FedWatch Shift: September Fed rate hike odds dropped further to 40%, with a 60% probability now priced in for a rate hold.

Despite the dovish shift in policy expectations, broader asset classes saw relatively muted price action post-release.

The U.S. Dollar experienced a modest technical bounce, Gold held firmly above $4,400, and Equities remained steady—reflecting a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” reaction as market participants await today’s Producer Price Index (PPI) report for further confirmation of disinflationary trends.

FX & Commodities Technical Insights

U.S. Dollar: Bounces Off 99.50 Support to Retest 100.00 Resistance

Despite the easing in Fed rate hike bets, the Greenback countered intuition and staged a technical bounce off its 99.50 support after buyers repeatedly defended the level over recent sessions, suggesting a potential “buy the rumor, sell the news” dynamic.

USDX, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

With continued support holding at 99.50, the rebound now sets up a retest of the psychological 100.00 resistance barrier. However, unless USDX convincingly reclaims 100.00, the overall bias remains tilted to the downside. While the market awaits PPI data next, expect a consolidation-to-bearish posture below 100.00, with a clean breakout needed to dictate the next directional leg.

EUR/USD: Edging Lower on Bearish Engulfing Pattern

EUR/USD faces renewed near-term downside pressure following a bearish engulfing pattern on the 4-hour chart alongside the rebound in the Dollar.

EURUSD, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

The currency pair is edging lower toward immediate structural support at 1.1500. Traders should monitor whether 1.1500 holds to gauge dip-buying opportunities. Notably, EUR/USD remains in a broader bullish setup, as evidenced by stacked moving averages and the previous breakout above the 1.1480 range—particularly if the U.S. Dollar Index meets strong rejection at its 100.00 resistance.

USD/JPY: Yen Weakness Eyes 160.00 Level

Should the Dollar gain short-term momentum, USD/JPY is well-positioned to extend its upward momentum, propelled by broad-based Yen weakness relative to other major currencies.

USDJPY, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

After pulling back to retest and bounce cleanly off the 158.60 support zone yesterday, USD/JPY remains constructively aligned for further upside. If Dollar strength persists through today’s PPI release, the pair may attempt a push toward the 160.00 threshold, which remains a highly likely scenario given underlying Yen weakness.

Gold: Resilient Above $4,400, but Momentum Signals Pause

Over in precious metals, Gold remains supported above its $4,400 structural floor, though recent price action indicates slowing bullish momentum.

XAUUSD, Daily Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

Over the past two sessions, prominent upper wicks on daily candlesticks have signaled persistent overhead selling pressure, which extended into Thursday’s Asian session after an initial push higher.

While the broader uptrend stays intact, an intraday break below $4,400 could trigger a deeper technical pullback toward lower moving average clusters before buyers re-emerge.

Intraday long traders should exercise caution on a breach of $4,400, as a breakdown here could signal a short-term downtrend across hourly or lower timeframes.

Market Summary & Key Highlights Today

Overall, markets enter Thursday’s session balancing in-line CPI data against potential volatility driven by today’s U.S. producer inflation metrics.

While declining Fed rate hike odds are typically bearish for the Dollar and bullish for Gold and Equities, caution remains warranted. Markets often price in expectations well ahead of time, meaning pre-positioned moves can temporarily reverse post-release—explaining the Dollar’s recent technical bounce. Technically, traders should watch the 99.50 – 100.00 range in the Dollar Index for a breakout.

What to Watch Today:

• U.S. July PPI Release (12:30 GMT): Track PPI figures to confirm wholesale disinflation trends and firm up September Fed policy expectations.
• USDX Resistance Test at 100.00: Watch if 100.00 caps the Dollar bounce or if a breakout occurs out of the 99.50 – 100.00 range.
• EUR/USD Support at 1.1500: Observe price action at 1.1500 for potential dip-buying setups along broader moving average support.
• USD/JPY Target at 160.00: Track whether USD/JPY can sustain momentum toward 160.00 following its bounce off 158.60.
• Gold Support Floor at $4,400: Monitor if bullion maintains its floor above $4,400 or initiates a short-term intraday pullback.

Disclaimer

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.