XAUUSD Breaks Weekly Structure: $3,850 Failure Could Open the Way to $3,650

Gold remains under pressure after extending its decline from the August recovery high. XAUUSD has slipped below the key $4,000 area and is now trading close to $3,850, while the weekly chart shows a bearish break of structure after price lost an important support zone. With momentum still pointing lower and the broader sequence of lower highs intact, a sustained move beneath $3,850 could expose the next major downside target around $3,650.

XAUUSD Daily Chart Analysis

On the daily chart, gold remains locked inside a clear bearish structure.

Since the August rebound toward the $4,650 region, XAUUSD has produced a steady sequence of lower highs, with the descending trendline repeatedly limiting every recovery attempt. The latest decline has now pushed price below $4,000, turning that psychological level into the first important resistance above the market.

Price is currently trading around the $3,900 area, with $3,850 acting as the next major support.

The Bollinger Bands continue to reflect strong downside pressure. Gold recently broke through the lower band during the latest selloff, showing that bearish momentum had expanded sharply. Although price has moved back inside the bands, it remains well below the middle Bollinger line, while the bands themselves are still tilted lower.

This keeps the underlying structure bearish rather than signalling a completed reversal.

The latest price action also shows that the rebound from below $3,850 has so far been limited. Buyers have managed to produce a short-term reaction, but price remains below both $4,000 and the descending trendline. Until those barriers are reclaimed, the move is better viewed as a pause within the broader decline.

A renewed break below $3,850 would confirm that sellers are regaining control and could trigger the next leg toward $3,650.

Key Levels:

• $4,000: Major psychological resistance and the first level buyers would need to reclaim.
• $3,850: Immediate support and the key trigger for bearish continuation.
• $3,650: Main downside target if $3,850 breaks.
• Descending trendline: Dynamic resistance maintaining the broader bearish structure.

XAUUSD Weekly Chart Analysis

The weekly chart makes the bearish picture even more important.

After the major rally that carried gold above $5,400, the market entered a prolonged corrective phase. Successive rebounds have failed at lower levels, and the latest decline has now pushed price through an important structural support area around $3,900–$4,000.

The chart highlights this move as a bearish Break of Structure (BOS).

That break matters because the market has moved below the support that previously contained the correction. Instead of continuing to hold above the former base, XAUUSD has now traded beneath it, confirming a deterioration in the higher-timeframe structure.

The next important support is located around $3,850. A sustained weekly move beneath this area would strengthen the bearish continuation signal and leave $3,650 as the next major downside objective.

The Awesome Oscillator confirms the loss of momentum. The indicator currently stands near -294.67, remaining firmly below the zero line. The negative histogram shows that bearish momentum continues to dominate on the weekly timeframe.

Although the histogram has fluctuated during the correction, it has not returned to positive territory. This means the higher-timeframe momentum picture continues to favour sellers.

The combination of a weekly break of structure, negative Awesome Oscillator and continued sequence of lower highs keeps the technical bias pointed lower.

XAUUSD Bearish Continuation Scenario

The daily and weekly charts are now aligned around the same bearish scenario.

On the daily timeframe, gold remains below the descending trendline and $4,000 resistance, while the Bollinger Bands continue to point to sustained downside pressure. On the weekly chart, price has broken an important structural support zone and the Awesome Oscillator remains firmly negative.

The decisive level is now $3,850.

A sustained break beneath this support would confirm continuation of the bearish structure and open the way toward $3,650, which represents the next major downside target on both charts.

For now, the short-term bounce has not changed the broader picture. Gold remains below broken support, momentum is negative, and sellers continue to control the higher-timeframe structure.

Bearish path: $3,850 breakdown → $3,650.