XAUUSD: Bearish Pressure Persists Below 4000 Resistance

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of XAUUSD for November 03, 2026.

Technical Analysis of XAUUSD

XAUUSD Daily Chart Insight

(XAUUSD Daily Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT5)

XAUUSD remains under significant bearish pressure on the daily chart, with the broader downtrend continuing to produce lower highs and lower lows. Following a sharp decline in late October, gold has staged a modest recovery towards 3953, although the rebound remains insufficient to reverse the prevailing bearish structure. Price continues to trade below the red 16-period moving average (MA16), purple 50-period moving average (MA50), and blue 100-period moving average (MA100), all of which are sloping downwards.

The daily RSI stands at 37.59, reinforcing the underlying weakness despite the latest recovery. Sellers therefore retain the broader advantage, with the 3988–4000 area representing the first significant resistance barrier. A sustained recovery above this zone would be needed before buyers could challenge the declining MA16 near 4070, while failure to overcome resistance could expose gold to renewed selling pressure towards its recent lows.

Key Levels:

• Support 1 (3900–3906): The immediate support area surrounding the latest recovery candle and recent price stabilisation zone. Holding above this region would help preserve the near-term rebound.
• Support 2 (3850–3877): The recent late-October swing-low region, where buying interest emerged following the sharp selloff. A breakdown below this area would reinforce the broader bearish structure.
• Resistance 1 (3988–4000): The nearest resistance zone, corresponding to the previously broken price area and the psychological 4000 level.
• Resistance 2 (4070): The declining red 16-period moving average (MA16), which may restrict a stronger recovery.
• Resistance 3 (4152): A previous consolidation and support region that could become a higher resistance barrier if bullish momentum strengthens.

XAUUSD 2-Hour Chart Analysis

(XAUUSD 2-Hour Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT5)

On the 2-hour chart, XAUUSD is attempting a short-term bullish recovery following its recent decline towards 3877. Price has rebounded to approximately 3952 and moved back above the red 16-period moving average (MA16), which has begun to flatten and turn slightly higher. However, the purple 50-period moving average (MA50) and blue 100-period moving average (MA100) remain above the current price, with both maintaining downward slopes. This configuration indicates that the recent advance is still a recovery within a broader bearish trend rather than a confirmed reversal.

RSI has improved to 50.89, suggesting that selling momentum has eased and buyers are regaining some short-term influence. Nevertheless, price is consolidating beneath the recent rebound high near 3960, leaving room for a temporary sideways pause. A decisive breakout above this resistance would strengthen the recovery outlook, while renewed selling below nearby support could restore bearish momentum.

Breakout Scenarios:

• Bullish continuation is a possible scenario, triggered by a decisive break and hold above 3959.80. Such a move could extend the recovery towards 3976.30, followed by the 3992.80 region near the declining purple 50-period moving average (MA50).
• Bearish correction is a possible scenario, triggered by a failure to hold the 3943.30 support area followed by a decisive breakdown. This could expose the 3926.80 region, followed by 3910.30 near the red 16-period moving average (MA16), with further weakness potentially reopening the recent lows around 3877.

XAUUSD Pivot Indicator

(XAUUSD 30-Minute Chart, Source: Trading Central)

The 30-minute Trading Central chart indicates a cautiously bullish intraday bias, with XAUUSD trading around 3947, above the key pivot level at 3930. Following a strong recovery from the recent lows, price has entered a brief pullback and consolidation phase while remaining above the pivot. The RSI stands at 56.51, maintaining positive momentum above the neutral 50 threshold, although its recent flattening suggests that buying pressure has moderated.

Meanwhile, the MACD remains in positive territory around 7.15, with its lines converging as the recovery loses some momentum. As long as price holds above 3930, the bullish preference remains intact, with 4005 and 4025 identified as the next upside resistance targets. However, a breakdown below the pivot would weaken the recovery structure and shift attention towards lower support levels.

• Bullish Breakout: A sustained hold above the 3930 pivot, followed by renewed strength above 3947, would support a continuation of the recovery towards the first resistance target at 4005, followed by 4025. Confirmation would come from the RSI maintaining readings above 50 and the MACD remaining positive while turning higher.
• Bearish Rejection: A decisive breakdown below the 3930 pivot would invalidate the immediate bullish preference and expose the first downside target at 3897, followed by 3877. A decline in the RSI below 50, accompanied by a bearish MACD crossover and weakening momentum, would strengthen the case for further downside.

Disclaimer Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.