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USDCHF Analysis: Switzerland Return to Era of Negative Rate
In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the USDCHF for June 20th, 2025.
Fundamental Analysis of USDCHF
USDCHF Key Takeaways
The era of negative interest rates is here again: Overnight, the Swiss National Bank announced a rate cut to 0%, becoming the first major central bank to return to zero interest rates after the epidemic! What’s more shocking is that excess reserves will face a punitive interest rate of -0.25%.
The Swiss franc has a low correlation with interest rates: Although the central bank’s interest rate cuts usually have a probability of falling in the corresponding currency. But the Swiss franc is a surprise. Due to the recent rise in risk aversion and high geopolitical and tariff uncertainties, the Swiss franc is more likely to strengthen.
Technical Analysis of USDCHF
USDCHF Daily Chart Insights
Key resistance: 0.81875, marked with a red horizontal line on the chart, is a very critical price level. This level provided support several times between late April and May 2025, but after being broken in early June, it has now turned into an important resistance level. The recent price rebound near this level was blocked, showing its suppressive effect. The purple 13EMA is currently also near this resistance level, further enhancing the resistance strength in this area.
Price Action: After the sharp drop in early April, the price formed a series of oscillating lower bar combinations. Recently, the price has been consolidating in a narrow range below the 0.81875 resistance level, and the K-line entity is relatively small, indicating that the long and short sides are competing fiercely in this area, but the overall situation is still subject to the upper resistance.
USDCHF 2-hour Chart Analysis
Significant dynamic resistance: The price is currently running below all three EMA moving averages. The purple 13EMA (currently around 0.8170-0.8175) and the black 65EMA (currently around 0.8160-0.8165) constitute the direct upper resistance zone. The green 200EMA (around 0.8190-0.8195) above is a stronger resistance. As long as the price remains below these moving averages, the short-selling pattern will be difficult to change.
Stochastic oscillator: The indicator enters the oversold area below 20. At present, the %K line has signs of hooking up and trying to cross the %D line. This shows that although the short-term downward momentum is strong, it has also reached an extreme level, and the market may have a need for a technical rebound, especially when the indicator forms an effective golden cross. However, in a bearish trend, the rebound strength after the oversold signal is often limited, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether it can break through the key resistance.
USDCHF Pivot Indicator
According to the trading central in Ultima Markets APP, the central price of the day is established at 0.8190,
Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 0.8190, first target 0.8215, second target 0.8235;
Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 0.8190, first target 0.8140, second target 0.8120.
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