Strong Nvidia Q2 Beat & Hotter PCE Set Up Key Technical Tests

Ultima Markets Daily Market Insights – 27 August 2026

Nvidia Earnings & PCE Data Drive Mixed Sentiment Ahead of Jackson Hole

Global equity markets traded mixed on Wednesday. U.S. cash benchmarks initially closed lower following a slightly hotter-than-expected headline PCE inflation reading, but index futures reversed sharply higher during after-hours trading, driven by Nvidia’s impressive Q2 revenue beat and bullish sales guidance.

Market momentum is navigating the dual forces of solid corporate earnings and sticky inflation:

• Nvidia Q2 Revenue Beat: Revenue came in at $30.04B vs. $28.7B expected. Nvidia’s CFO signaled robust sales growth extending into fiscal 2028, effectively easing immediate market concerns regarding AI infrastructure spending and reviving after-hours tech sentiment.
• Slightly Hotter Headline PCE: U.S. July core PCE matched consensus (+0.2% MoM, +3.3% YoY), but headline PCE ticked up to 3.7% YoY vs. 3.6% expected. The mild uptick slightly elevated Fed rate hike bets, prompting a corrective rebound across U.S. Treasury yields and the Dollar.

While Nvidia’s results keep the AI trade narrative alive, traders should exercise caution. Elevated Treasury yields continue to apply valuation pressure, while the approaching “September effect”—a historically challenging month for equity returns—suggests market sentiment remains selectively cooled.

Ahead of tomorrow’s critical Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, major benchmarks and currency pairs are expected to test key technical levels.

FX & Equities Insights & Technical Analysis

U.S. Dollar Index: Reclaiming 99.00 Shifts Focus to Support Test

The U.S. Dollar Index experienced a firm rebound following the slightly hotter headline PCE print, allowing buyers to push price action back above the pivotal 99.00 psychological barrier and triggering a temporary short-term recovery.

USDX, H2 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

Having reclaimed 99.00, the Dollar Index is currently testing whether this broken floor can re-establish itself as reliable short-term support, with a short-term ascending channel now taking shape.

A sustained hold above 99.00 on intraday retests could open room for an extended recovery toward 99.50. Conversely, if sellers drag USDX back below 99.00, the broader structural downtrend remains intact, re-exposing lower support at 98.50.

USD/JPY: Rebound Tests Moving Average Resistance Below 160.00

Firming U.S. yields and a rebounding Dollar provided temporary relief for USD/JPY, driving a bounce off its recent support base. Despite the bounce, USD/JPY remains firmly capped below the 160.00 psychological barrier (specifically around 159.60).

USDJPY, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

On the 4-hour (H4) chart, the recovery in the Dollar Index did not produce a significant surge in USD/JPY, suggesting the Japanese Yen is not showing complete weakness. Meanwhile, price action is retesting sloping moving average resistance near 159.00.

As long as 159.00 – 160.00 caps upside momentum, the pair retains a consolidation bias, and traders should not expect a major breakout capable of driving a broader trend shift just yet.

U.S. Equities: Nasdaq 100 Holds 29,000–29,300 Zone

Spurred by Nvidia’s earnings beat, Nasdaq 100 index futures launched a powerful after-hours bounce, reclaiming previously lost technical ground and rebounding sharply from the 29,000 – 29,300 support zone.

NAS100, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

Price action has climbed back above the 29,000 – 29,300 structural zone covered in earlier analyses while breaking out from its recent short-term downtrend channel.

If index futures hold above 29,300, intraday momentum favors a bullish retest toward upper resistance near 29,700 – 30,000, keeping the index within a broader consolidation pattern. However, if price action breaks back below 29,000 – 29,300, the structure will shift back into a corrective wave, threatening a deeper pullback.

Market Summary & Key Highlights Today

Heading into today’s session, the Dollar Index and U.S. equity benchmarks face a crucial test to verify whether recent technical level reclaims can hold ahead of tomorrow’s Jackson Hole addresses. Consequently, expect more contained price action while awaiting technical confirmation.

What to Watch Today:

• Dollar Index Hold Above 99.00: Monitor intraday price action around 99.00 to confirm whether the Dollar’s rebound extends toward 99.50 or falters.
• USD/JPY Resistance at 159.00 / 160.00: Watch moving average behavior below 160.00 to determine if short-term bearish pressure resumes.
• Nasdaq 100 Stability Above 29,000–29,300: Observe whether post-Nvidia earnings momentum maintains the 29,300 floor or breaks into a deeper corrective wave.
• Pre-Jackson Hole Position Squaring: Track market positioning and sentiment as traders finalize exposure ahead of central bank speeches tomorrow.

Disclaimer

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.