Brief:
Recent U.S. data point to softer growth alongside still-elevated inflation. Employment declined in July, retail sales weakened, and inflation pressures eased, leading markets to scale back expectations for a September rate hike. This week’s consumer confidence, Nvidia earnings, PCE, GDP and Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks could further reshape expectations for U.S. rates and the dollar.
U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for August – Tuesday
Tuesday’s consumer confidence will offer another signal on whether weaker employment and softer spending are beginning to weigh more heavily on households. A further decline could reinforce expectations for weaker consumption and support the case for the Fed to remain on hold.
U.S. Nvidia Second-Quarter Earnings – Wednesday
Nvidia’s earnings, due after the U.S. Market close on Wednesday, will test whether strong AI investment momentum can continue supporting elevated growth expectations. Forward guidance will be especially important, with the result likely to influence semiconductor stocks, the Nasdaq and broader risk sentiment.
Federal Reserve Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech – Thursday to Saturday
Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks could become a key catalyst for interest-rate repricing as markets lean towards no change in September. A stronger focus on inflation risks could lift the U.S. dollar and short-term Treasury yields, while greater concern over weaker growth and employment could further reduce expectations for additional rate hikes.
U.S. Core PCE and Second-Quarter GDP – Wednesday
Wednesday’s core PCE and the second estimate of second-quarter GDP will test whether inflation remains persistent while growth slows. Hotter inflation or an upward GDP revision could revive rate-hike expectations, while softer readings would strengthen the case for an extended Fed pause.
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