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In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the EURUSD for OCT 18th, 2024.
Key Takeaways
Strong US data: US retail sales growth in September slightly exceeded expectations, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at a smaller pace in the next year and a half. The US dollar index finally closed 0.24% at 103.77. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.0850%.
ECB continues to cut interest rates: The ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points again, and the deposit mechanism rate was lowered from 3.5% to 3.25%. This is the first time that the ECB has cut interest rates in 13 years. In addition, the ECB has not made any significant adjustments to its forward guidance for the future, and there is a possibility of a rebound in the exchange rate.
Technical Analysis
Daily Chart Insights
(EURUSD Daily Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4)
(EURUSD Daily Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4)
Stochastic oscillator: Both the fast and slow line indicators fell to the oversold area, suggesting that the current short trend is strong. It is worth noting that the fast line is about to cross the slow line to send a bullish signal, and there is a probability of a reversal in the exchange rate.
Elliott Wave: Since the end of September this year, the euro has completed five waves of decline against the US dollar and is currently in wave 5 at the end of the trend. Since there is no sign of reversal at present, investors cannot blindly buy the bottom and pay attention to the price behavior of the key support area below.
H1 Chart Insights
(EURUSD H1Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4)
(EURUSD H1Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4)
Stochastic Oscillator: The exchange rate hit a new low yesterday, but the indicators did not enter the oversold area, clarifying the bottom divergence pattern, and be alert to the reversal of the exchange rate during the Asian session.
Resistance to reversal: The exchange rate has been unable to reverse successfully under the suppression of the red 33-period MA. Therefore, the first resistance level that investors need to pay attention to is the red MA, and the second target position is the previous band high point. It is not easy to enter the market on the left before breaking through the second target.
Pivot Indicator
(EURUSD M30 Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4)
(EURUSD M30 Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4)
According to the Ultima Markets APP, the central price of the day is established at 1.0809,
Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 1.0809, first target 1.0856, second target 1.0869;
Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 1.0809, first target 1.0786, second target 1.0773.
Conclusion
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Stay tuned for more updates and analyses from our team of experts at Ultima Markets.
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