Strong August Start Driven by Tech Earnings & Easing Yields

Ultima Markets Daily Market Insights – 4 August 2026

Wall Street Kicks Off August with Massive Rally

Wall Street kicked off August with one of its strongest sessions in months on Monday, August 3, 2026, as positive geopolitical developments, falling energy costs, and robust corporate earnings sparked a broad-based rally. All three major U.S. stock indices surged higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average touching new record highs.

Strong corporate fundamentals continue to anchor market optimism, with roughly 77% of S&P 500 companies topping earnings estimates so far. Bullish momentum is expected to persist if today’s earnings lineup continues to deliver strong results, with tech sector sentiment particularly focused on SpaceX’s maiden public earnings report following its market debut.

On the macroeconomic front, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield eased toward ~4.68% as oil-driven inflation fears receded. Meanwhile, CME FedWatch tools reflect ~64.5% odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the upcoming September meeting.

While these odds appear elevated, the market has largely priced in the immediate move and remains skeptical regarding a second round of rate hikes, resulting in a net de-risking of terminal rate bets. This environment of lower long-end yields and a softening Dollar continues to bolster equities.

Barring an unexpected turn in corporate earnings, equity sentiment is likely to remain positive heading into Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report.

FX Outlook: U.S. Dollar Index & USD/JPY

U.S. Dollar Index (USDX): Double Top Breakdown Keeps Structure Bearish

The outlook for the U.S. Dollar Index remains unchanged following the technical breakdown below the 100.00 psychological floor.

USDX, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

The completion of the double top pattern signals ongoing bearish momentum. As long as 100.00 continues to hold as overhead resistance on any technical retests, the path of least resistance remains biased to the downside.

USD/JPY: Intervention Momentum Shift Demands Technical Caution

Following confirmed joint U.S.-Japan foreign exchange intervention, USD/JPY experienced a sharp sell-off, plunging over 5% across three sessions and shifting its dominant uptrend into a near-term bearish stance.

USDJPY, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

While short-term downside momentum remains strong due to intervention spillovers, traders should exercise caution against chasing short positions and focus on technical levels:

• 158.00 Resistance Level: This serves as an immediate pivot level to monitor for potential short entries. However, a clean reclaim back above 158.00 would invalidate near-term bearish momentum, necessitate strict stop-loss management and open the door for a short-term upside reversal.
• 160.00 Overhead Barrier: Over the broader horizon, 160.00 stands as a major overhead resistance level; any technical bounce toward this zone is likely to attract fresh selling pressure.

In overall, we remain bearish outlook on potential “intervention aftermath” momentum in USDJPY but cautious on any oversold rebound.

U.S. Equities Outlook: S&P 500 Reaches Key Target Area

Macro tailwinds have propelled the S&P 500 higher, bringing price action to key structural resistance levels where traders should transition to a cautiously bullish approach.

SP500, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

Traders should remain wary of potential short-term pullbacks or false breakout scenarios. At current elevated levels, chasing highs carries unfavorable risk-reward parameters; waiting for healthy consolidation or pullbacks to support remains prudent.

Meanwhile for Nasdaq 100 outlook, we still remain cautious on any extended upside move given the technical structure. Refer back on our daily market insights on the Nasdaq 100 yesterday.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Downtrend Channel Persists Beneath $65,000 Resistance

Across the cryptocurrency market, following its earlier bullish run, Bitcoin has encountered persistent selling pressure near the $65,000 resistance area.

While the near-term recovery in broader risk sentiment provided temporary support, a lack of strong buying momentum and a weak technical structure suggest the cryptocurrency remains vulnerable to downside risks rather than a sustained move higher.

BTCUSD, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

Technically, Bitcoin has broken below its previous upward trendline and is currently tracking within a short-term descending channel. Unless price action achieves a decisive upside breakout above this near-term channel and reclaims $65,000, traders should track the ongoing downtrend with caution.

Market Summary & Key Highlights Today

Global markets enter Tuesday with strong bullish momentum in U.S. equities, underpinned by easing Treasury yields, falling energy costs, and robust corporate earnings. However, traders should remain cautious as equity valuations reach record highs and key chart resistance levels.

With Friday’s critical U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report approaching, sentiment could quickly shift. Meanwhile, foreign exchange markets continue to adjust to a structurally weakened Dollar and high volatility in USD/JPY following official joint intervention.

Disclaimer

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.