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The US dollar started the week on a firmer footing, rebounding after last week’s FOMC meeting that reaffirmed the Fed’s cautious easing stance.
While the central bank delivered a 25 basis point rate cut in September and signaled the possibility of two more cuts before year-end, profit-taking and position adjustments helped the dollar recover from initial post-decision weakness.
Fed Speeches in Focus
This week’s attention will turn to a packed line-up of Federal Reserve officials’ speeches, with investors eager to gauge whether the Fed maintains its cautious approach or signals a more decisive policy path.
Traders will be listening closely for hints on whether policymakers see sufficient justification for another rate cut in upcoming meetings, or if they prefer to wait for clearer signs of cooling inflation. Hawkish remarks could help the dollar extend gains, while a more dovish message may bring renewed selling pressure.
Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Wednesday will be the highlight and is expected to set the tone for market sentiment.
US Data Remain Key Driver
Beyond Fed rhetoric, economic data will play a decisive role in shaping expectations. The Fed has emphasized that future moves will be data-dependent, keeping upcoming releases under the spotlight. This week’s calendar includes:
S&P Global PMI (Tuesday) – an important gauge of business activity and growth momentum.
Q2 GDP (Thursday) and weekly jobless claims – key signals on the resilience of the US economy.
PCE Price Index (Friday) – the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, which will be closely scrutinized for policy implications.
A softer run of data could strengthen the case for further easing and weigh on the dollar, whereas stronger-than-expected numbers may reinforce the dollar’s rebound, particularly if Fed officials continue to stress caution.
What’s Next for US Dollar?
Overall, the greenback remains highly sensitive to the balance between Fed communication and incoming economic data. In the near term, the US dollar is likely to stay in a tight consolidation phase as traders wait for clearer signals.
USDX,Daily Chart | Source: Ultima Market MT5
From a technical perspective, the dollar’s rebound has so far failed to break above the key resistance zone of 97.50–98.50.
Price action around this area will be crucial in the coming sessions. A sustained move above this zone could shift momentum higher, while failure to reclaim it would keep the broader downside outlook intact.
Disclaimer
Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.
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