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On Thursday, data showed U.S. retail sales rose 0.4% last month, following an unrevised 0.1% gain in August, exceeding economists’ expectations of a 0.3% increase. As a result, the U.S. dollar strengthened, rising 0.23% to close at 103.766, marking a fresh 11-week high.
(U.S. Dollar Index Daily Price Chart, Source: Trading View)
(U.S. Dollar Index Daily Price Chart, Source: Trading View)
Additionally, a separate report from the Labor Department showed that initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped by 19,000 to a seasonally adjusted 241,000 last week. However, hurricanes and a month-long strike at Boeing are complicating a clear assessment of the labour market.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 92% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points, with an 8% probability of a pause, keeping the federal funds rate within the 4.75%-5% target range, according to LSEG estimates. Fed officials, including Jerome Powell, have pushed back against the possibility of an additional 50 basis point rate cut, following the larger-than-expected rate reduction by the U.S. central bank in September, which surprised some market participants.
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