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The dollar strengthened last Friday after a U.S. jobs report revealed the largest increase in employment in six months for September, accompanied by a decline in the unemployment rate and notable wage growth. These signs of a resilient economy led markets to dial back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. The U.S. dollar index climbed 0.54%, closing at 102.49.
(U.S Dollar Index Daily Price, Source: Trading View)
(U.S Dollar Index Daily Price, Source: Trading View)
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 254,000 jobs were added to nonfarm payrolls in the past month, surpassing economists’ projection of 140,000. The unemployment rate came in at 4.1%, lower than expected of 4.2%.
Investors’ response to this impressive job growth underscores their focus on economic expansion, even when it coincides with a more hawkish stance. As a result, traders now anticipate a roughly 97% chance that the Fed will reduce rates by only a quarter percentage point in November, up from around 68% on Thursday, as shown by CME Group’s Fed Watch tool.
Additionally, despite the ongoing concerns about geopolitical developments and the risk of an energy supply disruption, market participants with risk-on positions have not faced any significant market-shifting news over the weekend and are entering the new week with confidence in further gains. In the latest updates from the Middle East, Israel launched airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip on Sunday, with Israel’s defence minister stating that all options for retaliation against Iran were on the table.
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