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On Friday, Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Martin Schlegel hinted at the possibility of reintroducing negative interest rates if necessary. While the central bank is not in favour of negative rates, it may resort to them to curb investor demand for the safe-haven franc. Following the remarks, the Swiss franc weakened against the U.S. dollar, with USD/CHF rising 0.77% to close at $0.8934.
(USDCHF Daily Price Chart, Source: Trading View)
(USDCHF Daily Price Chart, Source: Trading View)
Schlegel also emphasized that the Swiss franc is likely to remain a preferred safe-haven currency during periods of uncertainty. While this poses challenges, Switzerland is well-positioned to manage them. The SNB remains committed to maintaining price stability, targeting inflation within a 0-2% range over the medium term, he added.
Switzerland has previous experience with negative rates, using the policy to temper the franc’s strength, which exacerbates difficulties for exporters grappling with subdued global demand. However, the SNB exited negative rates in September 2022, aligning with other central banks in raising borrowing costs after successfully controlling inflation.
In 2024, the SNB has reduced its benchmark interest rate three times, bringing it down to 1%, with further cuts anticipated. Current market expectations suggest a 72% probability of a 25-basis-point cut and a 28% probability of a 50-basis-point cut at the central bank’s December meeting.
(Swiss National Bank’s Policy Rate, Source: Forex Factory)
(Swiss National Bank’s Policy Rate, Source: Forex Factory)
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