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Oil Prices Decline Sharply on Weak Demand Forecast
On Tuesday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced in its monthly report that global oil demand is projected to rise by 2.03 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, a slight decrease from the previous month’s forecast of 2.11 million bpd. However, until last month, OPEC was still maintaining the same forecast since it was initially issued in July 2023. As a result, U.S. crude oil prices dropped 3.67%, closing at $66.24.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on the same day that global oil demand is expected to hit a new record this year, while output growth will fall short of earlier projections. The EIA estimates that global oil demand will be average around 103.1 million bpd this year, which is an increase of 200,000 bpd from its prior forecast of 102.9 million bpd. Despite this upward revision, oil prices remained under pressure after the EIA release which is driven by the ongoing concerns about China’s economic slowdown.
OPEC and its allies had originally planned to increase output in October. However, with the crude prices sliding amid a sluggish global economy, they decided last week to postpone the output increase until December. Although rising concerns about economic growth and oil demand—particularly in China—have put downward pressure on prices, OPEC+ production cuts mean global oil supply remains below consumption levels.
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