Canadian Dollar Rally Stalls on Weak Labor Data and BoC Dovishness 

um editor

UM Editor

August 12, 2024 at 10:40 am

Soft labor data and a dovish outlook for the Bank of Canada (BoC) halted the Canadian dollar’s rally. The loonie traded at 1.374 per USD, down from its August 9th strength of 1.37. Canada’s unemployment rate remained at 6.4%, its highest level in over two and a half years, despite being below market expectations. The labor market showed signs of softening as net employment unexpectedly fell for a second consecutive month, while the labor force participation rate dropped to its lowest since 1998, excluding pandemic-related shocks. 

The Canadian dollar’s appeal has been further weakened by ongoing contraction in manufacturing and modest economic growth, increasing the likelihood of more easing by the BoC. In contrast, the Federal Reserve has not yet begun its rate-cutting cycle, with mixed expectations for an initial reduction in September. 

(Unemployment Rate，Statistics Canada) 

(USDCAD Six-month Chart) 

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