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和談變數與美聯儲加息押注主導盤面

Ultima Markets 每日市場展望 – 2026年6月22日

本週市場謹慎開盤,地緣政治局勢在週末出人意料地再度升溫。川普發出的襲擊威脅一度令聯準會高度關注的美伊和平談判陷入停滯。不過,包括巴基斯坦和卡達調解人在內的多方隨後澄清,對話依然具有建設性。

撲朔迷離且動盪不安的談判走向,依然是當前市場參與者密切關注的核心風險點。

宏觀政策方面,上週聯準會議息會議的鷹派餘音仍在持續發酵,沉重打擊了市場情緒。根據 CME FedWatch 工具的最新定價顯示,交易員們已開始大舉押注聯準會將在 2026 年 9 月加息 25 個基點。

加息概率 | 來源: CME FedWatch

緊縮預期的再度升溫正牢牢主導著更廣泛的市場主線。

緊縮預期推動美元走強

對於今日的交易時段,美元無疑是外匯市場的絕對焦點。多空雙方正在 100.00 這一重大心理大關上方展開激烈的拉鋸戰。在聯準會鷹派立場以及市場愈發篤定 9 月加息的背景下,多頭顯然占據了主導地位。

DXY, 4小時圖表 | Ultima Markets MT5

有鑑於此,交易員必須密切觀察這一巨大的心理阻力位能否成功轉化為有效的結構性支撐。若能持續企穩於 100.00 水平上方,將進一步鞏固由聯準會鷹派預期驅動的多頭延續行情;反之,若在此處遭遇強力拒絕,則可能使追高的多頭被套。

就目前而言,價格若能牢牢守住當前的 100.00 – 100.40 區域,將有效驗證美元指數的多頭敘事。

原油:跌勢或暫告停滯

轉向商品市場,原油走勢目前完全受到地緣政治局勢演變的支配。受中東局勢重燃的推動,油價今日開盤跳空高開,但隨著交易員開始消化相互矛盾的頭條新聞,盤面隨即迎來劇烈震盪並有所回落。

儘管如此,原油整體在結構上依然偏向下行。除非美伊和談徹底破裂,否則目前的任何反彈都極有可能只是技術性抽頭,只要持續的對話令地緣政治風險溢價不斷消退,宏觀前景就依然維持「逢高做空」的策略。

UKOUSD(布蘭特原油)技術展望

UKOUSD, 4小時圖表 | Ultima Markets MT5

從技術面來看,密切關注當前每桶 80 美元關口附近的價格水平至關重要。技術上,交易員需要觀察短線的下跌動能能否在此處暫時停滯並建立穩固的底部。

同時,從市場心理學角度來看,由於在當前的不確定性中,原油買家可能會針對和談破裂的潛在風險進行對衝,該區域仍可能催生一波短期的技術性反彈。

總體而言,原油基本面雖維持看跌,但交易員應密切關注短線反彈機會。

USOUSD(WTI原油)技術展望

USOUSD, 日線圖表 | Ultima Markets MT5

同樣地,對於 USOUSD 而言,直接支撐目前位於 75.00 – 77.00 區域。需密切觀察任何技術性反彈的跡象,但只要價格交投於 90.00 美元關口下方,該資產就仍牢牢陷入熊市區域。

市場總結

本週伊始,一波謹慎情緒席捲市場。變幻莫測的美伊和平談判——一度因川普的威脅而脫軌,隨後又得到緩和——為系統注入了新的地緣政治風險。

與此同時,聯準會的鷹派陰霾揮之不去,期貨市場正積極為 9 月的加息進行定價。地緣政治的不確定性與貨幣緊縮預期的交織,使得美元正全力鞏固 100.00 關口以尋求支撐,而原油則在經歷開盤的劇烈跳空高開後嘗試企穩。

因此,週一市場大概率會由美伊談判進展與加息預期敘述繼續主導。

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