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日本央行加息在即，日元先行走强

um editor

UM Editor

February 19, 2025 at 4:43 pm

今日Ultima Markets 为您带来了 2025年 1月 17日的美元兑日元深入分析。 

美元兑日元基本面分析 

  • 12月销售数据走弱：美国12月零售销售月率意外回落至0.4%，低于预期的0.6%，为2024年8月以来新低。“恐怖数据”意外回落，美元指数有所走弱。 
  • 联储委员发言：美联储理事沃勒认为，不能排除三月降息的可能性；如果数据表现良好，今年可能会有三到四次降息；芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比指出，CPI数据令人鼓舞的同时让人心生疑虑，两者影响相当。 
  • 日本央行加息在即：据悉日本央行下周将举行今年的第一次政策会议，就在美国当选总统特朗普就职的几天后。目前市场消息透露，日本央行认为1月份加息的可能性很大。 

美元兑日元技术分析 

美元兑日元日线图表分析 

（美元兑日元的日线图，来源Ultima Markets MT4） 

（美元兑日元的日线图，来源Ultima Markets MT4） 

  • 随机震荡指标：指标在超买区域出现顶背离形态后发出空头信号，随后快速下跌。短短两天，快线指标已经先行进入超卖区域，明确了当前空头趋势强劲，投资者应优先关注做空机会。 
  • 下方支撑：美元兑日元在连续跌破157和156整数关口后，下方水平阻力打开。同时红色33日均线在昨日被跌破，短期下方阻力优先看向绿色200日均线附近。 

美元兑日元1小时图表分析 

（美元兑日元1小时图，来源Ultima Markets MT4） 

（美元兑日元1小时图，来源Ultima Markets MT4） 

  • 随机震荡指标：指标在昨日亚盘时段出现底背离形态，在反弹震荡盘整后继续下跌进入超卖区域。短期空头力量占据上风，今日亚盘时段优先关注做空机会。 
  • 上方阻力：亚盘时段流动性减少，汇价存在反弹概率。上方看向虚线下行趋势线附近，同时也是矩形公允价值缺口下沿附近。 

美元兑日元枢纽线指标 

（美元兑日元的30分钟图，来源Ultima Markets APP）

（美元兑日元的30分钟图，来源Ultima Markets APP） 

  • 根据Ultima Markets APP的trading central枢纽线指标，当日中枢价位156.15， 
  • 156.15之上看涨，第一目标156.70，第二目标157.10 
  • 156.15之下看跌，第一目标154.50，第二目标154.00 

免责声明  

本文所含评论、新闻、研究、分析、价格及其他资料只能视作一般市场资讯，仅为协助读者了解市场形势而提供，并不构成投资建议。Ultima Markets已采取合理措施确保资料的准确性，但不能保证资料的精确度，及可随时更改而毋须作出通知。Ultima Markets不会为直接或间接使用或依赖此等资料而可能引致的任何亏损或损失（包括但不限于任何盈利的损失）负责。  

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