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In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the NZDUSD for 9th February 2024.
FOMC unlikely to cut interest rates in March: Initial Jobless Claims for last week came in at 218,000. The number of jobless claims in the United States fell more than expected, indicating that the job market remains strong despite the recent surge in layoffs. This reinforces the view that a rate cut may be later than expected, and the dollar will remain strong in the short term.
The New Zealand Federal Reserve may raise interest rates: As inflation remains high in Australia and New Zealand, the market is beginning to expect that the New Zealand Federal Reserve may continue to raise interest rates in February or April. ANZ Bank now expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to raise the cash rate to 6% in April.
Daily Chart Insights
Stochastic Oscillator:The indicator sent a bull signal below the 50 midline this week, suggesting that bulls may have the upper hand in the short term. But since the signal does not occur in oversold area, the signal needs to be viewed with caution.
Strong resistance: Although the New Zealand dollar started to move during the Asian session, it quickly rose by 0.5%. However, due to the extremely strong resistance above, in addition to the moving resistance composed of the green 240-day moving average and the 33-day moving average, there is also the lower edge of the previous flag-shaped range as a suppression area.
Elliot Wave Theory: The New Zealand dollar started a downward driving wave at the end of last year. As of early February, the internal structure was complete, so today’s closing is more important. If the exchange rate is finally blocked by multiple resistances and continues to fall, wave 5 is not a simple wave but will continue to form an extended wave. If the New Zealand dollar appreciates and breaks through the resistance, the probability of a reversal upward rises sharply.
4-hour Chart Analysis
Stochastic Oscillator: The indicator sends a long signal above the 50 midline, but in conjunction with the exchange rate, the indicator currently has the possibility of a top divergence. Unless the exchange rate continues to rise, once the bullish power fails, the indicator will immediately form a short signal, and the exchange rate may fall at a strong rate.
Multiple resistances: Above the exchange rate is the green 240-period moving average. At the same time, the downward trend and the lower edge of the flag-shaped channel jointly form a resistance area, waiting for feedback after the exchange rate hits.
According to the trading central in Ultima Markets APP, the central price of the day is established at 0.6081,
Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 0.6081, first target 0.6118, second target 0.6129;
Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 0.6081, first target 0.6063, second target 0.6053.
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Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.
Willly is a skilled and experienced market analyst who has been analyzing financial markets for over 5 years. He currently serves as a Market Analyst at Ultima Markets, a leading financial services company.
Willy brings a wealth of expertise in fundamental and technical analysis, having previously worked as Head of Financial Market Analyst at GCMAsia. There, he oversaw the research department and developed educational materials to build clients' financial knowledge. He also collaborated cross-functionally to amplify sales and achieve business goals.
Prior to that role, Willy gained valuable experience as a Financial Market Analyst at the same company. He generated daily and weekly reports, conducted market briefings, and provided trading strategies through webinars.
Read his latest market analyses on the Ultima Markets News & Analysis.
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Ultima Markets, a trading name of Ultima Markets Ltd, is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Commission "FSC" of Mauritius as an Investment Dealer (Full-Service Dealer, excluding Underwriting) (license No. GB 23201593). The registered office address: 2nd Floor, The Catalyst, 40 Silicon Avenue, Ebene Cybercity, 72201, Mauritius.