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In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the GBPUSD for Aug 22, 2024.
Key Takeaways
Minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting: The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the July FOMC monetary policy meeting on Thursday. The vast majority of members said that if economic data continues to meet expectations, it may be appropriate to ease monetary policy at the next meeting. This basically confirms the fact of the interest rate cut in September, so before the shoe falls, the market will be dominated by the sentiment of betting on the depreciation of the US dollar.
Employment data was significantly revised down: Yesterday, the US Department of Labor revised down the total number of non-farm employment in the year ending March by 818,000. This means that the employment growth rate is +1.4%, while the previous report was +1.9%. The employment level was revised to -0.5%, the largest revision since 2009. This revision supports the Fed’s claim that it will cut interest rates by up to 50 basis points.
Technical Analysis
Daily Chart Insights
(GBPUSD Price Daily Chart, Sources from Ultima Markets MT4)
(GBPUSD Price Daily Chart, Sources from Ultima Markets MT4)
Stochastic Oscillator: The indicator enters the overbought area, the fast line begins to slow down and is about to turn downward, and there is a probability of sending a short signal in the short term. Investors who are long need to be alert to the risk of the exchange rate turning at any time.
Double upward channel: The exchange rate has been rising strongly for nearly a week, indicating that the current bullish force is strong, and the market believes that the value of GBP/USD was too low in the previous period. But it is worth noting that the exchange rate has risen too fast and is now close to the short-term upward channel line and the long-term (October 2023 to present) upward channel. The exchange rate has the probability of reversing and falling, but before there is a clear signal, the bullish idea is still the main one.
15-min Chart Analysis
(GBPUSD 15 Minutes Price Chart, Sources from Ultima Markets MT4)
(GBPUSD 15 Minutes Price Chart, Sources from Ultima Markets MT4)
Upward channel: After breaking through the upward channel line yesterday, GBP/USD has pulled back to the upper edge of the channel line during the current Asian session. In theory, the previous upward trend has ended, and it is about to enter a consolidation or even decline phase in the short term.
Elliott Wave Theory: The internal structure of the exchange rate rise yesterday was a clear 5-wave structure, and the entire driving wave energy was relatively clearly divided. The break below 1.30946 during the US session yesterday suggests that the exchange rate will mainly fall today.
Pivot Indicator
(GBPUSD 30 Minutes Price Chart, Sources from Ultima Markets APP)
(GBPUSD 30 Minutes Price Chart, Sources from Ultima Markets APP)
According to the trading central in Ultima Markets APP, the central price of the day is established at 1.3050,
Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 1.3050, first target 1.3120, second target 1.3140;
Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 1.3050, first target 1.3030, second target 1.3010.
Conclusion
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Stay tuned for more updates and analyses from our team of experts at Ultima Markets.
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