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In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the COPPER for SEP 25, 2024.
Key Takeaways
PBoC cuts the reserve ratio: The People’s Bank of China announced a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, a reduction in the interest rate of existing mortgage loans, and a reduction in the minimum down payment ratio for second homes. It is expected that the reserve requirement ratio will be further reduced by 0.25%-0.5% within the year. The governor revealed that he supports qualified enterprises to acquire the existing land of real estate companies in a market-oriented manner. As one of the main raw materials for new energy and infrastructure, copper prices are likely to resume their previous upward trend after the People’s Bank of China cuts interest rates.
Gap between supply and demand: At present, the potential impact of various factors on copper prices is more positive and clearer. First, with the intensive maintenance of the smelting end in the fourth quarter, the supply of concentrate and scrap copper will slow down; second, the high growth in demand in the energy transformation field and the structural improvement of power grid demand will promote the recovery of demand in the third quarter, and the seasonal replenishment of inventory during the peak consumption season will further boost demand in the fourth quarter; third, the Federal Reserve has started a cycle of interest rate cuts. Historical data proves that the precautionary interest rate cuts against the background of the remaining resilience of the US economy will boost copper prices.
Technical Analysis
Daily Chart Insights
(Copper Daily Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4)
(Copper Daily Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4)
Stochastic oscillator: The indicator has entered the overbought area, and the current bullish trend is strong. Based on the fact that the current market price is a continuation of the previous upward trend, the indicator is likely to continue to run in the overbought area for a period, and it is not easy to be bearish.
Rising channel: Copper prices broke through the upward channel line yesterday, clarifying the current upward trend. Through the Fibonacci extension level to predict the obstruction position, today’s first target is near the 1.382 extension level, which is also the opening price of the order block (OB) that fell in July. Copper prices are likely to touch the obstruction and then adjust, and then look to the second target near the 1.618 extension level.
H1 Chart Insights
(Copper H1 Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4)
(Copper H1 Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4)
Stochastic oscillator: The indicator sends a short signal in the overbought area, suggesting that copper prices will enter a short-term adjustment during the current Asian session. It is worth noting that although the copper price has a strong upward trend, it has not formed a top divergence pattern with the indicator, and copper prices will continue to rise after resting.
Support price: Copper prices have accelerated their rise and broken through the original upward channel, suggesting that they are currently in driving wave 3. The copper price adjustment target during the Asian session is near the upward channel line and near the fair value gap (FVG) during yesterday’s US session.
Pivot Indicator
(Copper Daily Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets APP)
(Copper Daily Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets APP)
According to the Ultima Markets APP, the central price of the day is established at 4.4020,
Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 4.4020, first target 4.7175, second target 4.8065;
Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 4.4020, first target 4.2525, second target 4.1630.
Conclusion
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