USDCAD Analysis: Bullish Momentum Builds Against a Bearish Backdrop

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the USDCAD for July 11, 2025.

Technical Analysis of USDCAD

USDCAD Daily Chart Insights

• Bearish formation: Since February 2025, the prevailing market direction has been downward. The bearish momentum was reinforced by a “death cross” formation in late March to early April 2025, when the medium-term moving average fell below the long-term moving average. The long-term perspective continues to favor further declines as long as prices stay beneath both of these critical moving averages.
• Key support area: The Stochastic lines have crossed upwards from oversold territory, signaling building upward momentum. The key support zone lies at the recent double-bottom low between 1.3500 and 1.3525. The level represents the most critical area for bulls to defend.

USDCAD 2-hour Chart Analysis

• Mixed outlook: The immediate outlook shows mixed signals. The pair has attempted to establish a short-term uptrend since the low on July 3rd, with some higher lows and higher highs forming. While the price is currently trading above all three moving averages, the sustainability of the move remains questionable. The recent sharp rejection from the moving average cluster around 1.3650-1.3660 suggests potential resistance and buyer hesitation at higher levels.
• Breakout scenarios: The most probable scenario based on the current technical setup. A sustained 2-hour close above the 1.3715 resistance level would signal the up-trend’s continuation. Such a break would clear the way for a potential test of the next resistance at 1.3730, followed by a possible move toward the major resistance at 1.3790.

USDCAD Pivot Indicator

• The chart shows an extremely large and rapid price spike that has completely altered the short-term technical picture. Such moves are typically triggered by major news releases or economic data. The immediate outlook remains volatile with a bullish lean, as the price continues to hold well above pre-spike levels and all three moving averages.
• Bullish Breakout: The bullish scenario involves the price consolidating above the moving averages before attempting another push higher. A sustained 30-minute close above the 1.3710 resistance level would indicate renewed buying interest, paving the way for a re-test of the spike high at 1.3730. A breakout above 1.3730 would confirm strong trend continuation.
• Bearish Breakdown: A bearish scenario would involve sellers rejecting the entire news-driven move. The first sign of weakness would be a break below the moving average cluster (1.3675-1.3665). A decisive break and close below the major support at 1.3650 would signal strong bearish momentum, suggesting the spike was a temporary anomaly and the price could retreat to its pre-spike trading range.

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Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.