CPI Incoming: Dollar on Edge, Nasdaq Braces for Impact

Ultima Markets Daily Market Insights – February 13, 2026

The finale of the “Data Avalanche” is here. After Wednesday’s NFP surprise (+130K) failed to spark a sustained Dollar rally, the market has effectively hit the pause button. Traders are paralyzed, waiting for today’s massive US CPI Inflation report to decide the trend for the rest of February.

The stakes are binary: The NFP proved the labor market is resilient, but if today’s CPI shows inflation is also “resilient” (sticky), the Fed will have zero room to cut rates in March. This would be a nightmare scenario for the Nasdaq, while the Dollar faces a technical “do-or-die” moment at key support.

US CPI Preview: The Final Verdict

Markets expect Headline CPI to hold steady at 0.3% m/m, with the annual rate expected to tone down to 2.5% in January.

The Dollar’s stagnation yesterday (despite the strong NFP) signals that the market is tired. Bulls are hesitant to buy the Greenback unless inflation forces their hand. This shifts the market focus entirely to the CPI to provide the next verdict for the market narrative.

• Hot CPI: The “No Landing” scenario. This may force the Fed to hold rates “Higher for Longer” and likely pushes the Dollar higher.
• Cool CPI: The “Ideal” scenario for the Fed. This may revive rate cut bets (at least for June), keeping the Dollar pressured below the 97.00 trap door.

US Dollar Outlook: Why the Pressure Remains

Despite the strong jobs print, the US Dollar (USDX) remains heavy, languishing below 97.00.

The inability of the DXY to hold yesterday’s gains suggests that “long liquidation” is still in play. The market is pricing in that inflation is cooling, regardless of the jobs number.

USDX, H2 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

Technically, as long as price remains below the 97.00 – 96.80 pivot zone, the path of least resistance is lower.

However, recent price action suggests that a near-term Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern is forming. A daily close above this key 97.00 zone would open the gate for an upside move. But until then, the bias remains to the downside.

Nasdaq 100: “Rate Fear” vs. “AI Dreams”

The Nasdaq 100 (NAS100) is the most vulnerable asset class today.

Tech stocks hate high rates. Yesterday’s NFP reinforced the “Higher for Longer” narrative, causing the index to wobble. If CPI is hot today, that reality will trigger a deeper correction.

NAS100, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

Technically, the index is forming a potential near-term bearish reversal (a pullback phase within the broader trend). 25,000 remains the key line of defense. We are currently seeing a potential break; a clean break here would accelerate selling pressure into the weekend or even next week.

• Bearish Case: A hot CPI or an expected CPI figure would likely keep the market pricing in a “No Cut” Fed, triggering a negative outlook and sending the Nasdaq lower.
• Bullish Case: A cool CPI is the only savior. It would trigger a “Relief Rally,” sending the index back toward 25,200 as market nerves calm regarding the “Higher for Longer” narrative.

Read more on Full Nadaq100 Technical Analysis.

Disclaimer

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.