XAUUSD: Bearish Pressure Persists Below 4124 Pivot

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of XAUUSD for October 15, 2026.

Technical Analysis of XAUUSD

XAUUSD Daily Chart Insight

(XAUUSD Daily Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT5)

XAUUSD continues to exhibit a bearish daily structure following its unsuccessful recovery in August. After retreating from the 4685.90 region, gold has established a sequence of lower highs, with the latest price action consolidating near 4142.04. The price remains below the red 16-period moving average (MA16), the purple 50-period moving average (MA50), and the blue 100-period moving average (MA100), reinforcing the prevailing downside pressure. While the purple MA50 has flattened, the declining red MA16 and blue MA100 suggest that sellers retain the broader advantage.

Daily RSI at 42.90 indicates subdued bullish momentum without reaching oversold territory. A sustained recovery above the 4213.40 resistance area would be needed to ease immediate selling pressure, while failure to defend the 4055.90 support region could expose the market to further declines.

Key Levels:

• Support 1 (4055.90): Immediate support surrounding the recent consolidation lows, where buyers have repeatedly attempted to stabilise prices.
• Support 2 (3977.15): A lower support area associated with the broader June–July trading range.
• Support 3 (3898.40): A deeper support region near the previous mid-year lows, potentially becoming relevant if selling pressure intensifies.
• Resistance 1 (4213.40): Immediate resistance near the declining red MA16, representing the first obstacle to a sustained recovery.
• Resistance 2 (4292.15): A higher resistance area around the declining blue MA100 and previous trading congestion.
• Resistance 3 (4370.90): A broader resistance zone near the purple MA50 and previous consolidation area, where stronger selling interest could re-emerge.

XAUUSD 2-Hour Chart Analysis

(XAUUSD 2-Hour Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT5)

On the 2-hour chart, XAUUSD remains under bearish pressure despite staging a sharp rebound from the recent lows near 4073.35. The recovery has lifted prices toward 4141.33, marginally above the declining red 16-period moving average (MA16), although the price remains below the blue 100-period moving average (MA100) and purple 50-period moving average (MA50). The red MA16 has turned lower, while the purple MA50 is relatively flat and the blue MA100 continues to slope downward, suggesting that the broader short-term structure remains vulnerable.

RSI has recovered to 50.35 after approaching oversold territory, indicating improving momentum without confirming a bullish reversal. Unless buyers reclaim the resistance zone between 4152.60 and 4168.45, the current rebound could remain corrective, with renewed selling pressure potentially emerging near the moving averages.

Breakout Scenarios:

• Bullish continuation is a possible scenario, triggered by a decisive break and sustained move above 4168.45, where the purple MA50 provides resistance. Such a development could open the way toward 4184.30, followed by the previous swing resistance near 4200.15.
• Bearish correction remains a possible scenario, triggered by a rejection from the 4152.60–4168.45 resistance zone followed by a breakdown below 4105.05. This could expose the recent support levels at 4089.20 and 4073.35, reinforcing the existing bearish structure.

XAUUSD Pivot Indicator

(XAUUSD 30-Minute Chart, Source: Trading Central)

The 30-minute Trading Central chart maintains a bearish outlook for XAUUSD, with gold trading around 4107, below the key pivot resistance at 4124. Despite a modest rebound following the recent sell-off, prices remain beneath the declining moving averages, suggesting that upside momentum remains constrained. The RSI stands at 47.44, reflecting a recovery in momentum but remaining below the neutral midpoint.

Meanwhile, the MACD at -5.99 has started recovering from its recent trough but remains in negative territory, indicating that bearish momentum has moderated without confirming a reversal. As long as prices remain below the 4124 pivot, the immediate bearish preference remains intact, with downside targets at 4040 and 4018.

• Bearish Breakdown: A sustained rejection below the 4124 pivot, accompanied by renewed weakness beneath 4107, would maintain the bearish preference. The first downside target stands at 4040, followed by the secondary support at 4018. A reversal lower in the RSI from its current 47.44 reading, alongside renewed deterioration in the negative MACD, would strengthen the bearish scenario.
• Bullish Reversal: A decisive breakout and sustained move above the 4124 pivot would challenge the immediate bearish outlook, potentially opening the way toward 4161 and subsequently 4183. Confirmation would require the RSI to strengthen beyond its current 47.44 reading, accompanied by continued MACD recovery from -5.99 toward the zero line, signalling improving bullish momentum.

Disclaimer Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.