XAGUSD Analysis: Is the Silver Sell-Off Finished?

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the XAGUSD for February 3, 2026.

Technical Analysis of XAGUSD

XAGUSD Daily Chart Insight

• The chart presents a classic “bubble pop” scenario where the market is searching for equilibrium following an unsustainable vertical climb. The immediate outlook appears highly volatile and bearish, though the long-term trend continues upward, as demonstrated by the rising black and green moving averages. The most recent completed candle forms a “spinning top” pattern, characterized by a small body with wicks on both sides, signaling indecision and a temporary break in selling pressure. Should buyers successfully defend the 83.00 – 84.00 support level, the price could enter a sideways trading range between 80.00 and 95.00, allowing lower timeframes to resolve their oversold conditions.
• Key Levels: Immediate resistance sits at 96.50–98.00 (the purple moving average, now acting as a ceiling), with secondary resistance at 104.00 and major resistance at the 118.46 all-time high. On the downside, immediate support lies at 79.40 (the recent volatility spike low), while major dynamic support sits at 74.50–75.50 (the black moving average) and structural support rests at 70.00–71.00 (late December’s consolidation zone).

XAGUSD 2-Hour Chart Analysis

• The market has reached a critical decision point. Immediate momentum shows a slight bullish shift as price attempts to break above the Purple MA, indicating a potential relief rally toward the 88.00–90.00 range. Despite this near-term strength, the broader trend remains decisively bearish. Traders should approach any rallies into the 90.00+ zone with caution, as these levels may present potential short-selling opportunities rather than sustainable reversals.
• Breakout Scenarios: The market faces two primary scenarios. A confirmed H2 candle close above 85.00 would trigger a “dead cat bounce,” likely squeezing shorts toward the 90.00–95.00 zone as rising Stochastics and the extreme distance from mean averages prompt a snapback to equilibrium. Alternatively, a drop below 79.50 followed by a break of 77.50 would confirm bearish trend continuation, targeting a retest of the 75.30 low with potential for further downside. Given the overwhelmingly bearish dominant trend, failure to break the Purple MA with a long upper wick would likely invite aggressive selling pressure toward new lows.

XAGUSD Pivot Indicator

• The current rally leg has become overextended, with indicator lines beginning to converge and turn downward. This technical development suggests the price may face difficulty breaking through the Black MA in the near term. A pullback to allow the indicators to cool off appears likely before any continuation of upside momentum.
• Rejection and Consolidation: Given the overbought Stochastics and the downward slope of the Black MA, a rejection at current levels is plausible. In this scenario, the price would fail to break 85.50 and pull back toward the Purple MA at 82.00. This would present a potential trade opportunity: if the price bounces off 82.00 and Stochastics reset to oversold levels below 20, it would offer a strong intraday long entry for buying the dip.
• Bullish Breakout: A decisive M30 candle close above 85.50 would constitute a bullish breakout. This move would invalidate the immediate bearish pressure and open the door for a run toward 89.00–90.00. However, chasing the breakout immediately carries risk due to the overbought Stochastics; waiting for a retest of 85.50 as new support would offer a safer entry point.
• Trend Failure: In this scenario, the price would drop below the Purple MA and break the swing low at 79.20. This move would signal that the “Dead Cat Bounce” is over, indicating the market is ready to revisit the crash lows at 74.00.

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Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.