Weekly Market Outlook (March 17th – March 21st)

Last week, gold was one of the best-performing assets, reaching a new record high of $2,993.80 per ounce. This surge was largely driven by escalating trade tensions and increased safe-haven demand amid global economic uncertainties.

Meanwhile, US inflation came in lower than expected, fueling market bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts in mid-2025. This has kept the US dollar, as measured by the DXY index, hovering near a four-month low of 103.50.

Week Ahead: Central Bank Frenzy!

Looking ahead this this, it is going to be an interesting week packed with major central bank decision. The key focus will be on Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England’s rate decisions on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and China’s PBOC are also set to announce their latest monetary policies, alongside key economic data releases from major economies where it will be closely watching for any shift in market dynamics.

FOMC Meeting: Economic Projection & Dot Plot in Focus (March 20th)

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%. Market participants will closely watch the policy statement and the quarterly Economic Projections for insights into the Fed’s future stance.
With February inflation coming in cooler than expected, expectations for a June rate cut remain intact. However, investors will focus on the Fed’s inflation and interest rate projections to gauge the policy outlook for the rest of 2025.

Bank of Japan: Hike in July? (March 19th)

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to keep its policy rate at 0.5% in the upcoming meeting. Despite strong wage hikes by major Japanese firms and inflation hitting a two-year high of 4% in January, the BoJ remains cautious due to global economic uncertainties and its expansive balance sheet.
Markets anticipate a 25bps rate hike in Q3 2025, but the timing remains data-dependent. Any shift in the BoJ’s stance could significantly impact the yen, which has recently strengthened as a safe-haven asset amid rising global uncertainties.

Bank of England: Cut Pause on Uncertainty (March 21st)

After the first cut in February, the BoE is expecting to hold the base rate at 4.5% amid of uncertainty. The UK economy contracted by 0.1% in January, reversing December’s 0.4% growth, while inflation climbed to 3% and is projected to reach 3.7% by Q3, driven by rising energy and utility costs.
With mixed economic signals, the BoE is likely to maintain its cautious stance, closely monitoring growth and inflation trends before signaling any further policy shifts. As a result, this week’s meeting may offer little in terms of new policy direction.