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Week Ahead: Super Central Bank Week Looms

um editor

UM Editor

September 15, 2025 at 10:33 am

A “Super Central Bank Week” is on the horizon, with policy decisions from the Fed, BoC, BoE, and BoJ set to dominate markets. Last week’s contradictory signals—a weaker U.S. labor market report clashing with a resilient U.S. dollar—have set a complex stage. This week, the focus shifts to the central banks’ forward guidance, particularly the Fed’s dot plot, and key U.S. consumer data, which will be crucial for shaping global risk sentiment and FX trends.

Key Event to Watch:

1. Bank of Canada Rate Decision – Wednesday

The Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce its rate decision, with markets pricing in a 75% probability of a 25-basis-point cut. Against the backdrop of a soft domestic labor market and a slowing U.S. economy, the BoC may be inclined to cut rates to stimulate growth, which would put downward pressure on the Canadian dollar.

2. U.S. Federal Reserve Rate Decision – Thursday

The Federal Reserve will release its highly anticipated interest rate decision and the latest quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). Although U.S. inflation remains at 3%, a full percentage point above the official target, a weakening labor market and significant economic downside pressures have led markets to expect a 25-basis-point rate cut. It is worth noting, however, that with a cut already priced in, the U.S. dollar could see a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” rally.

3. Bank of England Rate Decision – Thursday

Also on Thursday, the Bank of England (BoE) will announce its latest policy decision. Following a recent surge in the UK’s 30-year government bond yield, the probability of further rate cuts by the BoE has significantly decreased. Markets expect the central bank to adopt a cautious monetary policy stance, which could provide support for the pound sterling.

4. Bank of Japan Rate Decision – Friday

Friday’s Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate decision is highly unlikely to include a rate hike. Due to the resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, significant uncertainty surrounds Japan’s domestic fiscal policy, making it probable that the BoJ will adopt a wait-and-see approach. The key focus will be on the BoJ’s speech regarding its future interest rate path, particularly whether another hike is still possible this year.

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