USDJPY Analysis: USDJPY rebounded in the short term

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the USDJPY for JAN 24, 2025.

Fundamental Analysis of USDJPY

USDJPY Key Takeaways

• Trump calls for rate cut: US President Trump demands immediate rate cut from the Federal Reserve, calls on the world to follow suit and consider communicating with Powell on interest rates.
• BoJ debuts: Today, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook report, and the market expects it to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. So far, economic data supports the Bank of Japan’s policy normalization in 2025. After the relevant remarks of the Bank of Japan officials, the market has almost fully digested the expectation that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by 25 basis points this week, indicating that such a move will not be surprising.
• Kazuo Ueda’s speech are more important: if the rate cut is as expected, policy normalization will continue. Therefore, the rate hike itself is unlikely to cause USD/JPY to fall significantly. A press conference will be held. If the Bank of Japan’s meeting statement, economic forecasts, or the press conference of Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda after the meeting fail to express a sufficiently hawkish outlook, the yen may repeat history and end the week at a lower price.

Technical Analysis of USDJPY Daily and Hourly Charts

USDJPY Daily Chart Insights

(USDJPY Daily Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4)

• Stochastic oscillator: The indicator slowed down the downward trend and sent a bullish signal on Wednesday. Since the indicator has not entered the oversold area, the short-term long and short forces are likely to be in the game stage, and it cannot be arbitrarily considered that the upward trend is coming.
• Trend is unclear: USD/JPY has been oscillating sideways since the end of the decline last Friday. The exchange rate is currently blocked by the purple 13-day moving average, which is also the lower edge of the flag oscillation range. The exchange rate is expected to continue to fall before it effectively returns to the upper part of the range.

USDJPY 1-hour Chart Analysis

(USDJPY H1 Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4)

• Stochastic oscillator: The indicator stopped the decline in the US trading session yesterday and sent a bullish signal. The fast and slow indicators both rose above the 50 median line in the Asian session, suggesting that short-term bullish forces have the upper hand.
• ICT strategy: The liquidity of the downward trend in the US trading session yesterday was basically eaten up, and there was no fair value gap. In theory, the power of both buyers and sellers has been released to a certain extent. This extreme liquidity exhaustion and lack of FVG suggest that short-term adjustments have begun.

Pivot Indicator Insights for USDJPY

(USDJPY M30 Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets APP)

• According to Pivot Indicator in Ultima Markets APP, the central price of the day is established at 156.45,
• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 156.45, first target 156.75, second target 157.00;
• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 156.45, first target 155.70, second target 155.55.

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