US Shutdown Nears End, Focus Shifts to Delayed Economic Data

After weeks of political stalemate, the longest U.S. government shutdown in history is finally coming to an end. The Senate approved the funding bill by a 60–40 vote, and the House of Representatives passed it 222–209, paving the way for President Trump’s immediate signature. The agreement formally ends the 43-day shutdown, allowing federal operations to resume through January 30, 2026.

With the government reopening, market attention is now turning toward the backlogged economic data, which will quickly challenge the current monetary policy outlook.

• Crucial Missing Reports: Federal agencies will begin releasing two months’ worth of delayed data, including the September and October Jobs Reports (NFP) and October CPI.
• Release Schedule: Based on past shutdown timelines, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is expected to release the NFP within 2–5 business days of reopening—potentially by the end of this week or early next week.

Fed’s Stance in Test

The rapid release of economic data will put the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook to the test. Markets are watching whether the data confirms labor market weakness (supporting a December rate cut) or shows persistent inflation (limiting room for easing). The data backlog could complicate the Fed’s analysis, keeping traders cautious.

Meanwhile, gold surged over 5% this week, reflecting renewed hedging demand amid uncertainty over the Fed’s next move.

According to CME FedWatch Tool data, market see 66.9% of 25 basis point cut in December, however, this was down significantly from 92% just a month ago.

FX Outlook: Dollar Consolidation & Policy Watch

The resolution of the U.S. government shutdown and the imminent release of delayed economic data have set the stage for a volatile phase in FX markets.

The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) remains in a consolidation phase near the 99.00 level, yet the technical bias still leans bullish, supported by the policy pause narrative and ongoing uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s next move.

USDX, Daily Chart | Ultima Market MT5

From a technical perspective, the 99.00–100.00 zone continues to define the short-term trading range.

Until the incoming data provides clearer direction, the Dollar is likely to remain in consolidation, with this range acting as the key test area for any potential breakout move ahead.

Yen: Pressure Extended

Despite the Dollar’s recent mild weakness, USDJPY edged higher, suggesting that the pair is consolidating last week’s safe-haven-driven pullback, when the Yen briefly strengthened amid political uncertainty.

With the imminent end of the U.S. shutdown, a key driver of Yen demand is fading, prompting a return of bullish momentum in the pair.

USDJPY, H4 Chart | Ultima Market MT5

Technically, the break above 154.40 signals a potential continuation of the bullish trend. Should momentum hold, USDJPY may head toward a test of the next key resistance level near 156.40, where further upside confirmation will be closely watched.

Gold: Surges as Fed Uncertainty Lingers

Gold extended its strong rally this week, buoyed by a combination of Fed policy uncertainty, a weaker U.S. Dollar, and receding political risk as the U.S. government shutdown nears its end.

The metal has now gained more than 5% so far this week, as investors reposition toward alternative safe-haven and inflation-hedge assets amid expectations that the upcoming data flood could challenge the Fed’s policy stance.

XAUUSD, Daily Chart | Ultima Market MT5

Technically, gold has extended its upside momentum toward the $4,200 level following last week’s breakout rally. Immediate resistance is observed near $4,180–$4,200, and current price action suggests a potential breakout could be forming.

However, caution is warranted as this zone represents a major resistance level. From a trading perspective:

• A solid break above $4,200 would present a potential intraday long opportunity.
• Any pullback near resistance could offer a dip-buying opportunity, with immediate support now seen around $4,135.

Overall, gold remains in a bullish consolidation phase, but near-term price action will be sensitive to U.S. Dollar dynamics and the incoming economic data flow.

Daily Market Takeaways

Thursday’s session is likely to remain highly volatile, as markets continue to reprice developments around the U.S. government reopening while awaiting the release of delayed economic data.

For the U.S. Dollar, this uncertainty is expected to translate into a sideways trading range, with resistance near 100 and support around 99, keeping the pair within a short-term consolidation phase.

Meanwhile, gold remains fundamentally bullish in the current market landscape. However, traders should exercise caution as price approaches the $4,200 key level, which previously acted as a major support before the earlier pullback. A decisive break above this level could open the door for further upside, while any rejection may trigger a short-term consolidation or pullback.

Disclaimer

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.