U.S.–China Trade Tensions Lift Gold, Weigh on Oil

Daily Market Insights – October 14, 2025, Brought to you by Ultima Markets

U.S.–China Trade Tensions Escalate but Diplomatic Signals Emerge

Global markets are navigating another volatile session as U.S.–China trade tensions intensify, though diplomatic backchannels offer a glimmer of relief.

Both sides have now rolled out reciprocal port fees on maritime shipping — with Beijing targeting U.S.-flagged vessels — marking the first tangible retaliatory measure since Washington’s announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports starting November 1.

At the same time, officials have stressed that diplomatic engagement remains ongoing. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that the Trump–Xi meeting in South Korea will proceed as planned, suggesting that tariffs may be negotiable if talks make progress.

These mixed signals have left markets cautious. Safe-haven assets remain well supported, while risk assets are showing signs of stabilization after last week’s sell-off.

Gold: Surpasses $4,100 with Another Record Rally

Gold continued its powerful rally above $4,000, breaking through the $4,100 mark on Monday and extending its record-setting momentum in early Tuesday trade. As of this writing, gold is trading near $4,150, reflecting persistent safe-haven demand.

Last week’s brief rejection from the previous record high of $4,059 triggered a pullback, but buyers quickly regained control around the $4,000–$3,995 support zone, fueling renewed upside momentum.

XAU/USD, H1 Chart | Source: Ultima Market MT5

• With gold now holding above $4,100, this level becomes the key short-term pivot sustaining the uptrend structure.
• A decisive rally through $4,150 could open the door toward $4,200 and beyond.
• The U.S.–China trade uncertainty is expected to keep the safe-haven premium elevated, supporting gold until there’s a clear shift in market sentiment.

Oil: Risk Premium Eases, Fundamentals Still Soft

Oil prices are stabilizing as the Gaza ceasefire continues to ease short-term risk premiums. Meanwhile, traders are closely monitoring the U.S.–China tariff developments, which could have meaningful implications for global demand sentiment.

On the demand side, the reciprocal port fees imposed by the U.S. and China have added a negative tone to oil markets, with traders anticipating slower trade flows if tensions escalate further.

On the supply side, OPEC’s latest report indicates a smaller supply deficit for 2026, citing steady production increases. This outlook keeps overall sentiment cautious, despite occasional short-lived rebounds in prices.

USOUSD, Daily Chart | Source: Ultima Market MT5

UKOUSD, Daily Chart | Source: Ultima Market MT5

Technically, both WTI and Brent crude are struggling to break through key resistance levels:

• Brent: $66.00
• WTI: $62.00

Failure to clear these resistance levels could keep oil under pressure in the near term, especially if U.S.–China trade relations deteriorate further. While renewed geopolitical flare-ups could trigger temporary upside spikes, these are unlikely to change the broader soft fundamental outlook for oil.

Market Outlook

With tariff uncertainty, the U.S. government shutdown, and persistent geopolitical risks, overall market sentiment remains fragile.

• Safe-haven assets such as gold and silver continue to benefit from heightened uncertainty and risk aversion.
• Oil remains range-bound, with fundamentals outweighing short-term geopolitical spikes.
• Traders will be closely watching any developments from Trump–Xi communications and progress in trade negotiations in the lead-up to the November tariff deadline.

Disclaimer

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.