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The market’s focus this week is concentrated on the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest assessment of crude oil demand and the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision. Although the BoJ is widely expected to hold rates steady on Friday, its forward guidance on the hiking cycle will be crucial.
Meanwhile, the weakening trend in U.S. consumer confidence warrants continued attention as a potential early warning sign of an economic slowdown. Traders should also note the potential for shifts in liquidity on Monday due to the U.S. stock market closure.
Key Event to Watch:
1. Canada December CPI (MoM) & U.S. Martin Luther King Jr. Day Holiday – Monday
Canada will release its monthly CPI data, a key gauge of Canadian inflation that directly influences market expectations for the Bank of Canada’s subsequent monetary policy. A higher-than-expected CPI figure could support the Canadian dollar. Concurrently, with U.S. markets closed for the holiday, overall liquidity may decrease, so caution is advised due to the potential for magnified currency market volatility.
2. IEA Monthly Oil Market Report – Wednesday
The International Energy Agency (IEA) will publish its latest assessment of the global crude oil market. Of particular interest will be its evaluation of recent supply changes from key oil-producing nations like Venezuela. Recent signs suggest that the risk of a decline in Venezuelan crude production and exports has increased due to the political situation, and the IEA’s judgment on this risk will shape market expectations regarding the stability of supply outside of OPEC+.
3. ECB December Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes – Thursday
The European Central Bank will release the minutes from its December monetary policy meeting, where it chose to hold its three key interest rates unchanged. These minutes will reveal the trade-offs policymakers are weighing between the economic outlook for inflation and growth. If the minutes show increased confidence among members that inflation is returning to its 2.0% target, it would reinforce market expectations for rate cuts in 2026 and could pressure the euro.
4. Bank of Japan Rate Decision – Friday
The Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision in what will be its first meeting since taking the pivotal step to raise rates in December 2025. The market’s focus will be on its guidance regarding the future path of rate hikes. If the central bank sends a hawkish signal, suggesting further hikes are possible, it would push the yen stronger. A more dovish tone, emphasizing a potential pause in the hiking cycle to observe its effects, would likely put the yen under pressure.
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