Gold Signals Hesitation, Oil Slips Toward Key Support

Daily Market Insights – October 3, 2025, brought to you by Ultima Markets.

The U.S. dollar staged a modest rebound yesterday after four consecutive days of losses. However, the upside momentum may prove temporary, as the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is likely not being released today due to the ongoing government shutdown.

In the absence of official data, markets turned to ADP employment and other private labor indicators for guidance. These showed clear signs of slowing job growth, reinforcing the view that the U.S. labor market is cooling. As a result, while the dollar found short-term support, lingering weakness in employment suggests the rebound may be limited.

Bank of Japan: Ueda Cautions on Global Risks

In his latest remarks, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda acknowledged that inflation is trending toward the 2% target, but emphasized that rate hikes will remain conditional and gradual. He also warned that global uncertainty could weigh on wages and complicate the policy outlook.

Markets interpreted his tone as cautious, which weighed on the yen. Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida, however, struck a more positive note, highlighting improved business sentiment while reaffirming that policy will stay data-driven.

USD/JPY, H4 Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Market MT5

The cautious stance has kept USD/JPY elevated above the 146.80 support after retreating from near the 150 level over the past four days.

With the BOJ signaling mixed views and the U.S. lacking major data releases, the pair may remain in extended consolidation, likely trading within a range for the near term.

Gold Holds Near Highs but Faces Pullback Risk

Gold extended gains to touch $3,895/oz again yesterday before pulling back, partly pressured by the dollar’s rebound. While the broader momentum remains favorable, the pullback formed a second consecutive upper wick on the daily chart — a sign of buyer hesitation and rising risk of a short-term correction.

XAU/USD, H4 Chart | Source: Ultima Market MT5

If gold sustains pressure below the $3,855–$3,870 resistance zone, a leg lower could unfold in the near term, forming a technical pullback within the broader uptrend. The key psychological support remains at $3,800.

Oil Faces Supply Pressure

Oil prices were another major focus yesterday, falling to their steepest decline in more than two months. The sell-off was driven by rising OPEC+ supply and weakening demand. Brent crude briefly rebounded on concerns about tighter Russian crude sanctions, but gains were capped.

• OPEC output rose by ~330,000 bpd in September as the group continued to unwind production cuts.
• U.S. inventories also increased, underscoring weak refining activity.

UKOUSD Brent, Daily Chart | Source: Ultima Market MT5

Brent crude has now broken below its recent range of $66–70, which also coincides with a multi-year support zone. This breakdown could invite renewed selling pressure, with downside risk if demand fails to recover or supply remains elevated.

More on Crude oil Technical Analysis.

Disclaimer

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.