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In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the GOLD for JAN 8, 2025.
Fundamental Analysis
GOLD Key Takeaways
Strong US data: A series of data released by the United States yesterday performed strongly. The US JOLTs job vacancy data in November recorded 8.098 million, exceeding market expectations, and the previous value was revised upward; the ISM non-manufacturing PMI in December recorded 54.1, exceeding market expectations. After the data was released, the market questioned whether the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates before July.
The central bank increased its gold holdings: The People’s Bank of China increased its gold holdings for the second consecutive month, and its foreign exchange reserves fell by 1.94% month-on-month in December.
The strong dollar suppressed gold prices: The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the December monetary policy meeting on Thursday, and the market is paying close attention to more clues about the future policy path. Based on the current strength of the US dollar, if the minutes of the meeting show clues of a real hawkish turn, the price of gold may see a short-term decline.
Technical Analysis
GOLD Daily Chart Insights
(GOLD Daily Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4)
(GOLD Daily Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4)
Stochastic oscillator: The indicator breaks through the 50 median line and begins to slow down the rise, suggesting that the short-term rise is more of a rebound, and the trend strategy cannot be the main one. Be alert to the downward trend caused by the upper resistance.
Price action: Gold has pin bars for two consecutive days this week, suggesting that the long and short positions are unclear. However, based on yesterday’s market price eating up all the liquidity above Monday, there is still a probability of a short-term surge in today’s Asian session.
Wave theory: Since the adjustment of gold at the end of October last year, the market price has gradually fluctuated and converged, and it is suspected to form a converging triangle shape. According to the wave theory, it is currently most likely to be in the d-wave adjustment wave. In theory, the target position of the d-wave is the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement position of the c-wave.
GOLD 1-hour Chart Analysis
(GOLD H1 Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4)
(GOLD H1 Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4)
Confirm direction: Based on the judgment of the daily cycle oscillation trend, the gold price today focuses on the upper and lower resistance support prices. The upper fair value gap and the lower order block support price. Before there is a clear breakthrough direction, be alert to the disorderly fluctuations of the gold price.
MA support: The purple 13-period MA is still above the black 65-period MA, so the short-term bullish thinking is the main focus. If the gold price falls during the Asian session, pay attention to the support of the black 65-period MA below.
GOLD Pivot Indicator
(GOLD M30 Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets APP)
(GOLD M30 Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets APP)
According to Pivot Indicator in Ultima Markets APP, the central price of the day is established at 2664,
Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 2664, first target 2675, second target 2690;
Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 2664, first target 2632, second target 2624.
Conclusion
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