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In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the USDJPY for SEP 19, 2024.
Key Takeaways
Fed’s Preventive Rate Cut: On Thursday, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that this cut should not be seen as the norm, and future decisions will remain data dependent. The absence of aggressive rate cuts in the future suggests that the bearish sentiment on the U.S. dollar has largely played out, leading to short covering in the market.
USD Likely Already Priced In: Since the Fed does not consider 50 basis points as the new standard for rate cuts, financial markets will need to recalibrate their expectations based on the likelihood of a soft economic landing. In short, over the past three months, the financial market may have fully priced in the Fed’s potential rate cut. The U.S. Treasury yield curve may return to an inverted state, and with the expectation of economic growth, the U.S. dollar could once again resume an appreciation trend.
Technical Analysis
Daily Chart Insights
(USDJPY Daily Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4)
(USDJPY Daily Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4)
MACD: The indicator is signaling a bullish trend below the 0-axis, with a bullish divergence forming with price. The shrinking momentum bars over the past two days also indicate a strong bullish trend, suggesting investors should focus on long trade opportunities.
Price Action: Signs of a rebound appeared on Monday, with Tuesday’s candlestick forming a bullish “Morning Star” pattern. Yesterday’s pin bar further confirmed strong support below, making USD/JPY worth considering for long trades today.
H1 Chart Insights
(USDJPY H1 Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4)
(USDJPY H1 Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4)
Head and Shoulders Bottom Pattern: Yesterday, the price formed a head and shoulders bottom pattern at the low. Despite the extreme volatility caused by the Fed’s rate decision, the closing price remained above the neckline, suggesting the correction has ended.
Moving Average Support: The short-term moving averages are above the green 200-period moving average. Prior to this, the price retested the moving average, breaking through previous highs during the Asian session, theoretically signaling a continuation of the uptrend. However, caution is advised as the current target has already reached twice the height of the head and shoulders pattern, so there may be upcoming consolidation.
Pivot Indicator
(USDJPY M30 Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets APP)
(USDJPY M30 Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets APP)
According to the Ultima Markets APP, the central price of the day is established at 141.80,
Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 141.80, first target 143.00, second target 143.70;
Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 141.80, first target 141.20, second target 140.50.
Conclusion
To navigate the complex world of trading successfully, it’s imperative to stay informed and make data-driven decisions. Ultima Markets remains dedicated to providing you with valuable insights to empower your financial journey.
For personalized guidance tailored to your specific financial situation, please do not hesitate to contact Ultima Markets.
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Stay tuned for more updates and analyses from our team of experts at Ultima Markets.
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