In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the NZDUSD for July 9, 2024.
Key Takeaways
- RBNZ Resolution: The market expects the official cash rate of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to remain at 5.5%. As the government’s budget contraction in 2024 is less than expected and it is unlikely to be dovish, this may allow the easing policy in 2024 to play a role.
- CFTC positions: As the market expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to be one of the last countries to cut interest rates. Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that hedge funds’ net long positions in the New Zealand dollar increased to 12,563 contracts in the week ending June 25, the highest level since December 2021.
Technical Analysis
Daily Chart Insights
- Stochastic oscillator: The indicator sent a long signal in the oversold area last week, and the exchange rate stopped falling and began to rise, suggesting that the long force has the upper hand, and it is worth paying attention to short-term long trading opportunities.
- MA group: After the sto indicator clarified the long signal, the exchange rate also stood above the moving average group again, and is currently blocked at the second highest point of the previous downward trend. Wait for the exchange rate to fall back to the moving average group. After breaking through the high resistance, the appreciation trend of the New Zealand dollar will be clear.
4-hour Chart Analysis
- Stochastic oscillator: The indicator enters the overbought area and sends a short signal, suggesting that the current bullish sentiment is slowing down and will begin to adjust later.
- Support area: The exchange rate falls after breaking through the moving average, and will be blocked below the short-term moving average group and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. At that time, pay attention to whether the exchange rate shows bullish price behavior.
Pivot Indicator
- According to the trading central in Ultima Markets APP, the central price of the day is established at 0.6110,
- Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 0.6110, first target 0.6155, second target 0.6168;
- Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 0.6110, first target 0.6089, second target 0.6076.
Conclusion
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Disclaimer
Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.
