In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the EURUSD for July 31 2024.
Key Takeaways
- No surprises in July resolution: The Fed will announce the latest July interest rate decision on Thursday. The market expects that the Fed will have little chance of cutting interest rates in July and is not particularly concerned about the meeting’s outcome. Instead, the focus is more on the changes in the Fed’s statement. If there are any clues to the future path of interest rate cuts in the statement, the US dollar will still be under great selling pressure.
- Financial data is the key: Later this week, the United States will release key economic data, including ADP employment figures, initial jobless claims, and Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. These data points will influence the likelihood of a rate cut in September, with the market even considering a potential 50 basis point reduction.
Technical Analysis
Daily Chart Insights
- Stochastic oscillator: The indicator has not completely entered the oversold area to slow down the decline, suggesting that the short-term exchange rate long and short forces are still anxious, but the short forces still have the upper hand and cannot easily turn to long positions.
- MA support: After the euro/dollar has a clear downward trend, it has been moving downward all the way and is currently blocked by the moving average support. Notably, the 33-day, 65-day, and 200-day moving averages are all flat, implying that the current volatility is likely to decrease. A clear trend direction will only emerge once there is definitive fundamental news.
H1 Chart Insights
- Stochastic Oscillator: The indicator sends a long signal before entering the oversold area, and the exchange rate has not hit a new low, forming a bottom divergence pattern. The direction of the current exchange rate remains uncertain, so patience is much required.
- Fair value gap: Although the exchange rate fell rapidly yesterday, the support below is strong, and the exchange rate is in a rebound trend in the short term. Attention should be given to the upper edge of the fair value gap and the black 65-cycle moving average. Before the exchange rate breaks through the upper long-short conversion area, it will likely to be dominated by a volatile trend.
Pivot Indicator
- According to the trading central in Ultima Markets APP, the central price of the day is established at 1.0795,
- Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 1.0795, first target 1.0835, second target 1.0850;
- Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 1.0795, first target 1.0780, second target 1.0765.
Conclusion
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Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.
