Dollar Steady, Gold and Bitcoin Hold the Line

Daily Market Insights – October 10, 2025, brought to you by Ultima Markets

Dollar Steady After FOMC Split

The U.S. dollar extended its three-day winning streak on Wednesday, before holding steady on Thursday following the release of the latest FOMC meeting minutes, which revealed a divided Federal Reserve.

While most policymakers supported the recent 25-basis-point rate cut, several members cautioned that progress on inflation has stalled, prompting markets to scale back expectations for more aggressive easing.

A majority of officials noted that risks to employment have risen since the July meeting, justifying the September cut. However, some participants warned of the risk of inflation becoming unanchored if rate cuts continue too aggressively.

There was at least one dissenting vote — Stephen Miran — who favored a larger 50-basis-point cut. The minutes also showed a split outlook: while some officials support two more cuts this year, others prefer a slower pace or even no additional easing.

According to CME FedWatch, markets still assign a 94.1% probability of another 25 bp rate cut in October. However, this probability has fallen from 99.4% a week ago, largely due to delayed labor market data, which has added uncertainty to the Fed’s policy path.

Dollar Pair Outlook

• EUR/USD slid to 1.1600, weighed down by weak Eurozone data and ongoing concerns over regional growth and political uncertainty in France’s upcoming election. Although the pair rebounded from the key 1.1600 support, the broader outlook remains bearish, with downside risks persisting unless economic conditions stabilize.
• USD/JPY recorded an impressive three-day rally, reclaiming the 150.00 level and trading near 153.00. While a short-term pullback could occur after the sharp move, the yen remains under pressure as Japan’s new administration signals a readiness to pursue fiscal stimulus, keeping policy divergence between the BoJ and the Fed in focus.

Gold Glows, But Short-Term Signals Hint at a Pullback

Gold continues to trade firmly above $4,000 following yesterday’s breakout rally that marked a record high of $4,059, supported by safe-haven demand and a softer U.S. yield backdrop.

The metal’s resilience highlights its role as a hedge against policy uncertainty and elevated equity valuations, with investors maintaining exposure despite emerging overbought signals.

From a technical perspective, the recent short-term pullback suggests that gold may be entering a minor corrective phase. However, the metal is likely to consolidate above the $4,000 level in the near term as buying interest remains strong.

A decisive break below $4,000, on the other hand, could trigger a deeper corrective wave, signaling a potential shift toward broader profit-taking or trend exhaustion.

For now, keep an eye on the key levels at $4,059 (record high), $4,030 (short-term pivot level), and $4,000 (psychological support).

Crypto: Bitcoin Holds the Line

Bitcoin (BTC) remains stable around $122,000, extending several days of sideways consolidation after reaching a record high near $125,000. The pair encountered resistance around $124,000 yesterday, reflecting a pause in bullish momentum.

ETF inflows continue but have slowed notably, suggesting that market momentum is cooling. Meanwhile, volatility across the crypto complex sits near three-month lows, highlighting a cautious yet steady risk environment.

For now, BTC appears range-bound between $125,000 and $121,000, forming a key supply-demand zone. A confirmed break below $121,000 could shift this zone into resistance, opening the door for a broader consolidation phase between the previous low near $112,000 and the record high at $125,000.

Overall, crypto markets continue to mirror traditional assets — steady but hesitant. As risk sentiment stabilizes, BTC may extend its consolidation until a new catalyst emerges to drive direction.

Disclaimer

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.