Dollar Fades Post-NFP; Nasdaq Struggles & Pre-CPI Jitters

Ultima Markets Daily Market Insights – February 12, 2026

The US “Data Avalanche” has begun, and the first blow was a surprise. Yesterday’s rescheduled NFP report came in hotter than expected (+130K vs. 70K exp), with Unemployment dipping to 4.3%.

This “Good News is Bad News” result has thrown a wrench in the “March Rate Cut” narrative. It pushed the Dollar up briefly while US equities faced a mild sell-off as investor sentiment remained mixed over recent data. However, the US Dollar failed to sustain its rally, hitting a technical ceiling and fading back below 97.00, leaving traders confused and cautious ahead of tomorrow’s massive CPI release.

Post-NFP Dollar Update: Why the Pressure Remains

Despite the strong jobs print dimming rate cut hopes, the US Dollar rally was brief as markets remain hesitant to fully commit to the Greenback, largely because expectations for “No Cut until June” were already priced in.

The NFP beat was solid, but not “explosive” enough to bolster the Dollar significantly. Investors are focusing more on inflation given the Fed’s stance that the labor market is “good,” but the battle is now on prices.

The market is now terrified of tomorrow’s CPI. If Inflation comes in cool, the Fed cut hopes narrative could still “alive”.

Dollar Outlook

The Dollar remains heavy based on price action. The failure to close above 97.00 yesterday suggests the “relief rally” lacked conviction.

USDX, H2 Chart | Ultima Market MT5

Technically, we need to see the Dollar close above the 97.00 – 96.80 zone to shift the bias back toward bullish.

As for now, the bias remains cautiously bearish for the Dollar. A break below here (perhaps on weak Jobless Claims today) opens the door to another leg lower.

Nasdaq 100: “Higher for Longer” Pain

The Nasdaq 100 (NAS100) continues to face mild pressure, with the tech-heavy index remaining flat but experiencing significant intraday volatility.

Heavyweight Nvidia continues to support the index, while other mega-caps like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google were down heavily yesterday. This reflects that downside pressure remains valid; were it not for Nvidia’s gains, the index likely would have suffered more.

The strong labor market gives the Fed permission to keep rates high (3.50%+) for longer. This hurts “Long Duration” assets like Tech stocks that rely on cheap future money. Consequently, the Nasdaq 100 could still face short-term pressure.

NAS100, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

The NAS100 continues to face pressure below its H4 200-MA, with “death crosses” across multiple moving averages suggesting that bearish momentum is still intact.

The current 25,000 level remains major support for the index; however, if near-term price action fails to regain recent highs, a corrective downside move remains likely.

UK GDP Today: The Pound’s Test

For today’s focus, the GBP faces a test as UK Q4 Preliminary GDP is due at 7:00 AM GMT. The market expects growth of 1.2%, down from the previous 1.3%.

• The UK economy is teetering on recession. A higher-than-expected print would alleviate market worries, suggesting the BoE is in no hurry to cut rates as they tackle inflation first, which may bolster the Pound.
• Conversely, a missed print would confirm “slowdown” or recession risks, pressuring the BoE to cut rates sooner and weighing on the Pound.

GBPUSD, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

For GBP/USD, 1.3600 continues to hold as base support. A break below 1.3600 would invalidate the pair’s recent uptrend structure.

Hence, today’s GDP data may have a significant impact. A beat or meeting of expectations would salvage Pound strength, keeping the “buy the dip” narrative supported in the near term.

What to Watch Today

Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET):

• Why it matters: Even with NFP out, weekly claims are the cleanest real-time gauge. A spike above 230K would undo yesterday’s “Strong Labor” narrative and hurt the Dollar.

Pre-CPI Positioning:

• Volatility Warning: Liquidity will likely dry up after the London Close (11:00 AM ET) as traders refuse to hold big positions ahead of tomorrow’s CPI Inflation report. Expect choppy, range-bound price action in the afternoon.

Disclaimer

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.