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Week Ahead—Post-Tariff Reaction: What’s Next After the Copper Shock?

14 July 2025

Weekly Market Outlook (July 14th to 18th)

Last week, markets were focused on the Trump tariff deadline. While a full escalation was avoided, fresh uncertainty emerged. President Trump postponed the tariff pause deadline to August, but warned key trade partners of higher targeted tariffs, including a potential 10% levy on BRICS nations if their trade policies are seen as “anti-American.”

The biggest shock came from a 50% tariff on copper imports, effective in August. Framed as a national security move, it sent copper prices to record highs, with both futures and spot prices surging. The copper decision introduces new uncertainty to global supply chains, given its importance in EVs, semiconductors, and clean energy. It may disrupt production, lift costs, and fuel inflation pressures.

While equity and FX markets stayed calm, the underlying risks and volatility remain, especially if raw material costs continue to rise, which lead to a surge in inflation and trade tension.

Week Ahead—Post-Tariff Reaction: What’s Next After the Copper Shock

With the shock 50% copper tariff now priced in, market focus shifts to whether tensions will escalate further—or pivot toward negotiation. While the Trump administration has hinted at more targeted tariffs, much now depends on how global trade partners respond in the coming days.

Several key economies, including Germany, South Korea, and Japan, are reportedly preparing a joint response to be presented at next week’s G20 Finance Ministers meeting. This raises the risk of retaliatory tariffs or coordinated pushback, which could intensify global trade fragmentation. Meanwhile, BRICS leaders at the Rio Summit have issued a joint condemnation of the U.S. tariff strategy, calling it “unilateral and disruptive,” and are urging the WTO to intervene if negotiations collapse.

The coming week will be crucial in determining whether this copper tariff shock turns into a broader global trade rift—or if major players will opt for dialogue to avoid renewed volatility in commodities, currencies, and global supply chains.

Key Events & Economic Event, Why It Matters?

While markets will continue to closely monitor how global economies respond to the latest U.S. tariff threats, several important economic events this week also have the potential to drive volatility across currencies, commodities, and equities:

1. US Consumer & Producer Price Index – July 15th & 16th

Inflation remains the central driver of Federal Reserve policy, making this week’s Consumer and Producer Price Index reports especially pivotal. The June CPI will be closely watched for signs of cooling price pressures—particularly in light of the 50% copper tariff, which may feed into both production and consumer costs. A softer reading could reinforce expectations for a September rate cut, while sticky inflation may delay easing.

2. China Q2 GDP – July 15th

China’s second-quarter growth data will provide a broader view of the world’s second-largest economy amid weak domestic demand and external trade tensions. A stronger print could boost global sentiment and commodity prices, while weaker growth may heighten calls for more policy support from Beijing.

3. UK, Canada & Japan Consumer Price Index – July 15th to 18th

A string of inflation data from key economies could shift central bank tone and currency sentiment. For the UK and Canada, signs of easing inflation could open the door to rate cuts later this year. Meanwhile, Japan’s inflation data will be critical for the Bank of Japan as it navigates its path toward potential policy normalization.

Key Takeaway for the Week

Markets may seem calm, but risks are building beneath the surface. With the copper tariff shock now priced in, the focus turns to how other countries will respond—will this lead to more tension or new talks? At the same time, important data like U.S. inflation and China’s GDP could shape central bank decisions.

This week could bring big moves in markets if there are any surprises on trade or economic numbers. Stay alert—news headlines may drive quick changes across currencies, commodities, and stocks.