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霍尔木兹封锁收紧，油价重回100美元

能源市场今日再度陷入混乱，布伦特原油期货重新突破 100美元大关，而截至发稿时 WTI 交易价格接近 94美元。尽管美伊之间维持着暂时性的停火，但霍尔木兹海峡仍处于封锁状态，导致全球 20% 的石油和液化天然气 (LNG) 供应瘫痪。

霍尔木兹封锁收紧，油价重回100美元

美伊/中东局势更新

  • 美国总统特朗普无限期延长了原定于周三到期的美伊停火协议。
  • 然而，特朗普表示，由于封锁僵局导致谈判停滞，美伊战争“没有时间表”。
  • 以色列加大了对黎巴嫩的袭击，严重破坏了脆弱的地区停火协议。
  • 伊朗表示，由于停火协议不断遭到破坏，霍尔木兹海峡无法开放。

这导致基准原油的风险溢价持续回归。自2月底冲突开始以来，布伦特原油已飙升 42%。持续的封锁正迫使机构对印度等依赖石油的经济体进行了大规模的“减持”评级下调。

与此同时，通胀担忧增加。随着油价达到三位数，“高利率将维持更久”的观点不再是理论——它已成为央行的生存机制，并在此过程中打击了风险偏好。

然而，美国股市受强劲财报驱动创下历史新高，而欧洲股市的涨势因能源危机影响加剧而面临压力。

能源市场的下一步动向？

如果封锁不能在周内解除，Ultima Markets 分析师警告油价可能出现“粉碎性”上涨，再次逼近 120美元。市场正密切关注美伊停火条款；任何对和平的破坏或持久的僵局都可能引发能源价格的另一轮剧烈上涨，并导致新兴市场股市的全面崩盘。

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