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美伊和平进程受阻；非农数据成焦点

美伊和谈面临考验

随着霍尔木兹海峡爆发海军冲突，美伊外交解决的希望面临严峻挑战，双方均指责对方先发制人：

  • 伊朗方面： 声称美国率先向伊朗船只开火，违反了停火协议。
  • 美国方面： 表示其针对伊朗军事设施的打击是对比利时海军舰艇遭到袭击的直接报复。

此次交火发生前，伊朗曾表示正在考虑美国提出的停战协议。尽管局势升级，特朗普总统仍称停火协议“依然有效”，且美国不寻求进一步扩大冲突。然而，他也发出严厉警告：如果伊朗不尽快签署协议，“我们将以更猛烈、更暴力的方式反击”。

美伊和谈面临考验

欧洲股市回落，波动加剧

受此消息影响，全球股市剧烈波动。欧洲主要股指大幅调头向下，回吐了周三因和谈希望而录得的大部分涨幅。

外汇市场方面，随着避险买盘介入，美元指数 (DXY) 从近期低点 97.60 附近反弹。与此同时，原油价格也从近日跌势中回升，反映出市场对中东供应中断的担忧再度升温。

市场后续展望？

停火协议与和谈的脆弱性持续令投资者感到不安。不过，若局势不再进一步恶化，整体市场影响可能有限。

目前市场的焦点转向今晚公布的美国4月非农就业报告 (NFP)。市场预期将新增 6.5 万个就业岗位，较 3 月的 17.8 万显著放缓。如果就业增长在三位数油价背景下依然表现稳健，“高利率将维持更久”的叙事将进一步固化，这可能会严重打击全球股市的风险偏好。

美伊和谈面临考验

美元指数 | 来源：Ultima Markets MT5

目前美元在 98 关口附近震荡，避险买盘有所减弱，市场在今晚非农报告出炉前保持观望。

欲了解更多有关美元的分析与前景展望，请阅读 Ultima Markets 的最新市场洞察。

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