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板块轮动拖累纳指;英镑无视美元强势飙升

Ultima Markets 每日市场展望 – 2026年6月23日

科技股轮动与美联储加息押注

在周一的美股交易时段中,科技股遭遇剧烈轮动,令大盘指数承压,纳斯达克指数和标普 500 指数双双走低。市场情绪的这一转变,主要是由于投资者正越来越多地为美联储 9 月加息 25 个基点的预期进行定价。

货币紧缩政策的前景促使市场对高增长板块重新进行评估,随着盘面逐步适应紧缩叙事,资金纷纷流出此前涨幅巨大的科技资产。

在美联储加息步伐逼近的基本面压力下,纳斯达克 100 指数正从小幅强势的多头阶段过渡到盘整期。尽管宏观行情的上行趋势依然完好,但当前的科技股抛售表明,该指数在尝试下一波持续上攻之前,需要建立一个稳固的结构性支撑底部。

纳斯达克 100 指数(NAS100)技术展望

从技术面来看,纳斯达克 100 指数(NAS100)近期在 30,700 附近遭遇多重阻力,表明该科技指数的上行动能受到压制,盘面已进入收敛盘整期。

NAS100, 4小时图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

短期内,整体上行趋势虽未破坏,但我们需要密切观察 30,000 整数心理关口能否发挥坚实的支撑作用,从而为下一轮多头行情蓄势。若不幸跌破该位置,纳斯达克 100 指数可能会陷入更广泛的区间震荡。

特别是在当前宏观环境下,加息预期的升温对科技股这类利率敏感型板块而言无异于逆风前行。

斯塔默辞职引英镑反弹

大西洋彼岸,英国政坛迎来地震级巨变。周一,基尔·斯塔默正式宣布辞去英国首相及工党党首职务。出人意料的是,这一重大政治变动受到了市场的热烈欢迎,因为它暂时缓解了长期压制英国资产的国内政治不确定性。

英镑兑主要货币应声走强,其中英镑兑美元(GBPUSD)更无视美元的整体强势,逆势收高。

英镑兑美元(GBPUSD)技术展望

尽管近期政治面催生了这一波反弹,但英镑兑美元的宏观下行通道依然完好。目前,该货币对正徘徊在主要结构性支撑区域附近。

短期内,交易员需密切观察英镑能否延续这股势头以展开更深的技术性反弹。然而,鉴于美联储加息预期为美元提供了核心支撑,除非美元指数显现出明确的见顶疲态,否则整体操作方向仍维持在关键阻力位“逢高做空”。

GBPUSD, 4小时图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

从技术上看,汇价在 1.3200 附近具备较强支撑。观察小时图的短线趋势,盘面已显露出潜在的反转迹象,后市有望再攻一波;然而,上行空间在 1.3300 关键阻力位附近将面临严峻考验。

这意味着,如果英镑自身动能得以维持,英镑兑美元短期内大概率将在 1.3200 – 1.3300 之间维持大箱体震荡,其反弹高度将受到强美元的压制。因此,短线展望看好多头反弹,而中长线视角仍以震荡盘整视之。

黄金展望:避险需求遭遇阴霾

商品市场方面,美美伊和平谈判持续取得进展,显著削弱了此前支撑贵金属的避险买盘。加之美元在美联储加息预期的美债收益率支持下表现强劲,金价近期承压持续走低。

尽管经历了一轮连续下跌,金价目前可能正步入 4,100 – 4,000 美元这一关键结构性底部区域。交易员应继续死守这一区间,长线买盘随时可能在此处介入,以捍卫这一重大的技术与心理支撑位。

XAUUSD, 4小時圖表 | Ultima Markets MT5

在日内展望中,除非黄金能强行收复 4,200 关口,否则多空大概率将继续被困在 4,100 – 4,200 之间的弱势盘整格局中。日内短线交易应继续将核心策略聚焦于区间高抛低吸。

市场总结

本周市场格局悄然发生转变。美国方面,随着市场提前为美联储 9 月加息严阵以待,科技股的抛售令纳指和标普 500 指数双双承压。与此同时,英国政坛因首相斯塔默的辞职而迎来拐点,英国市场对此反应积极,英镑得以短暂无视强势美元逆势突围。

在商品市场中,地缘风险溢价的消退和坚挺的绿背美指拖累金价走低,但目前黄金已切入 4,000 美元大关附近的主要结构性支撑区域。

对于今日的市场盘面,在交易员静待本周晚些时候更具爆发力的重磅宏观经济数据出炉前,预计整体波动率将维持在上述技术点位之间交织盘整。

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