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和谈变数与美联储加息押注主导盘面

Ultima Markets 每日市场展望 – 2026年6月22日

本周市场谨慎开盘,地缘政治局势在周末出人意料地再度升温。特朗普发出的袭击威胁一度令美联储高度关注的美伊和平谈判陷入停滞。不过,包括巴基斯坦和卡塔尔调解人在内的多方随后澄清,对话依然具有建设性。

扑朔迷离且动荡不安的谈判走向,依然是当前市场参与者密切关注的核心风险点。

宏观政策方面,上周美联储议息会议的鹰派余音仍在持续发酵,沉重打击了市场情绪。根据 CME FedWatch 工具的最新定价显示,交易员们已开始大举押注美联储将在 2026 年 9 月加息 25 个基点。

加息概率 | 来源: CME FedWatch

紧缩预期的再度升温正牢牢主导着更广泛的市场主线。

紧缩预期推动美元走强

对于今日的交易时段,美元无疑是外汇市场的绝对焦点。多空双方正在 100.00 这一重大心理大关上方展开激烈的拉锯战。在美联储鹰派立场以及市场愈发笃定 9 月加息的背景下,多头显然占据了主导地位。

DXY, 4小时图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

有鉴于此,交易员必须密切观察这一巨大的心理阻力位能否成功转化为有效的结构性支撑。若能持续企稳于 100.00 水平上方,将进一步巩固由美联储鹰派预期驱动的多头延续行情;反之,若在此处遭遇强力拒绝,则可能使追高的多头被套。

就目前而言,价格若能牢牢守住当前的 100.00 – 100.40 区域,将有效验证美元指数的多头叙事。

原油:跌势或暂告停滞

转向商品市场,原油走势目前完全受到地缘政治局势演变的支配。受中东局势重燃的推动,油价今日开盘跳空高开,但随着交易员开始消化相互矛盾的头条新闻,盘面随即迎来剧烈震荡并有所回落。

尽管如此,原油整体在结构上依然偏向下行。除非美伊和谈彻底破裂,否则目前的任何反弹都极有可能只是技术性抽头,只要持续的对话令地缘政治风险溢价不断消退,宏观前景就依然维持“逢高做空”的策略。

UKOUSD(布伦特原油)技术展望

UKOUSD, 4小时图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

从技术面来看,密切关注当前每桶 80 美元关口附近的价格水平至关重要。技术上,交易员需要观察短线的下跌动能能否在此处暂时停滞并建立稳固的底部。

同时,从市场心理学角度来看,由于在当前的不确定性中,原油买家可能会针对和谈破裂的潜在风险进行对冲,该区域仍可能催生一波短期的技术性反弹。

总体而言,原油基本面虽维持看跌,但交易员应密切关注短线反弹机会。

USOUSD(WTI原油)技术展望

USOUSD, 日线图表 | Ultima Markets MT5

同样地,对于 USOUSD 而言,直接支撑目前位于 75.00 – 77.00 区域。需密切观察任何技术性反弹的迹象,但只要价格交投于 90.00 美元关口下方,该资产就仍牢牢陷入熊市区域。

市场总结

本周伊始,一波谨慎情绪席卷市场。变幻莫测的美伊和平谈判——一度因特朗普的威胁而脱轨,随后又得到缓和——为系统注入了新的地缘政治风险。

与此同时,美联储的鹰派阴霾挥之不去,期货市场正积极为 9 月的加息进行定价。地缘政治的不确定性与货币紧缩预期的交织,使得美元正全力巩固 100.00 关口以寻求支撑,而原油则在经历开盘的剧烈跳空高开后尝试企稳。

因此,周一市场大概率会由美伊谈判进展与加息预期叙述继续主导。

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