SpaceX IPO 2026: What Investors Should Know

SpaceX IPO 2026: What Investors Should Know

The SpaceX IPO story has sharpened in recent weeks, not because SpaceX has filed to go public, but because private market pricing has moved again in a big way. In mid December 2025, Reuters reported SpaceX launched an insider share sale that values the company at about $800 billion, with shares offered at $421 and up to $2.56 billion available in the transaction.

That matters for anyone tracking a potential SpaceX IPO in 2026, and it also matters for Alphabet shareholders. Alphabet is one of SpaceX’s early outside investors, so a future listing could make the value of that stake far more visible to markets.

Why SpaceX Might Go Public in 2026

The clearest datapoint right now is the secondary sale. According to Reuters, SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen told shareholders the company is preparing for a possible IPO in 2026, while also stressing that timing and valuation are still uncertain and dependent on execution and market conditions.

A few key takeaways from the latest reporting:

• Valuation reset: the reported $800 billion level is a major step up versus earlier private market pricing. Reuters also noted discussion of a sale that would value SpaceX at $800 billion, roughly double a more recent $400 billion secondary valuation.
• Capital raising potential: Reports say the IPO could raise more than $25 billion as early as June 2026, if it happens.
• This is not an IPO yet: the current move is a private share sale, which can boost liquidity for employees and existing shareholders while signalling demand ahead of any public offering.

In other words, a SpaceX IPO is still a “maybe”, but the company’s own communications are now more explicit about the pathway than before.

What is Driving the SpaceX Valuation

Starlink Has Become A Core Business Line

A major reason investors are willing to price SpaceX like an infrastructure company is Starlink’s scale.

Reuters reported this week that Starlink is serving over 8 million users across more than 150 markets, and demand for user terminals continues to pull in a large supply chain. It is referenced that Starlink is reporting 8 million global subscribers in separate coverage tied to Europe’s satellite internet landscape.

Starship And Launch Cadence Still Matter

Starship remains the long term wildcard, but SpaceX’s ability to execute at high launch frequency keeps reinforcing the investment case. SpaceX has set a record with 134 Falcon launches in 2024 and is aiming to exceed that with 170 launches in 2025.

Regulation And Competition Are Part Of The Story

Europe is also watching Starlink closely. In late November 2025, Reuters reported Starlink secured a long term licence in France, while Amazon’s satellite internet licence faced a legal challenge there, reflecting growing scrutiny and competition in the sector.

What Elon Musk Has Said About Going Public

Musk’s clearest IPO framing has historically been about Starlink, not SpaceX as a whole.

He has said Starlink would go public once its cash flow is reasonably predictable. Later, he said Starlink reached breakeven cash flow, which some investors read as one step closer to the “predictable cash flow” threshold needed for an eventual listing.

That does not automatically mean an IPO is imminent. But it explains why markets keep circling back to the same idea: if SpaceX wants a public market story that can survive quarterly scrutiny, Starlink is the obvious foundation.

Why Are Traders Looking At Alphabet?

The reason is simple. If SpaceX goes public, Alphabet’s stake could become one of the most valuable non core holdings inside a public company.

The Original Investment

In 2015, Google and Fidelity invested about $1 billion in SpaceX, and SpaceX said they would collectively own just under 10 percent.

Many market write ups estimate Google’s portion at roughly $900 million for about a 7.4 percent stake at the time.

Alphabet does not routinely publish a current ownership percentage, and later funding rounds can dilute earlier stakes, so treat any single percentage today as an estimate rather than a confirmed number.

Alphabet Has Already Seen Meaningful Paper Gains

According to Bloomberg, Alphabet reported results in April 2025 that included an $8 billion unrealised gain tied to a private company investment, widely understood in subsequent reporting to be SpaceX.

That matters for one simple reason: the market has already seen that SpaceX valuation changes can become financially material in headlines around Alphabet’s earnings.

A Quick Valuation Scenario

If you use the 7.4% estimate as a simple illustration:

• At $800 billion, that stake implies about $59.2 billion of value (before dilution and lockup considerations).
• At a speculative $1.5 trillion IPO valuation, it implies about $111 billion.

This is why some investors call SpaceX a “hidden asset” inside Alphabet.

Risks And What Could Delay A SpaceX IPO

Even with momentum, it is worth staying realistic.

• SpaceX itself has flagged that an IPO is still uncertain, including timing and valuation.
• Some analysts have highlighted the tension between a public market investor base and Musk’s Mars focus, including the cost and risk of heavy R and D programmes.
• Valuation expectations are lofty, and any stumble in execution or market risk appetite can push the window out.

Conclusion

SpaceX remains one of the most exciting companies in the world. With its groundbreaking technologies, strong financials, and rapid revenue growth, SpaceX is well-positioned for a successful IPO in 2026.

For traders watching public markets, Alphabet is a practical angle. Its early SpaceX investment has already produced meaningful paper gains, and a future IPO could make that value easier for the market to see, compare, and price.