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Weaker Inflation Might Trigger Rate Cut from the SNB

UM Editor

December 4, 2024 at 11:19 am

Inflation Falls Short of Expectations

On Tuesday, data from the Federal Statistics Office revealed that Swiss annual inflation edged up to 0.7% in November from 0.6% in October, falling short of the forecasted 0.8%. Meanwhile, consumer prices dipped by 0.1% compared to the previous month, aligning with expectations.

(Switzerland CPI y/y, Source: Investing.com)

In 2024, the Swiss National Bank (SNB), which aims to maintain inflation between 0% and 2%, has implemented three 25-basis-point rate cuts, bringing its benchmark rate to the current level of 1%. Market expectations now suggest a 71% probability of a 50-basis-point cut and a 29% likelihood of a 25-basis-point reduction at the SNB’s upcoming monetary policy meeting on December 12. Earlier market sentiment had favoured a smaller 25-basis-point cut.

(Swiss National Bank’s Policy Rate, Source: Forex Factory)

Looking ahead, two additional 25-basis-point rate cuts are anticipated in March and June 2025, potentially lowering the benchmark rate to 0%. Beyond this, the possibility of reintroducing negative interest rates cannot be ruled out, as the SNB has indicated it remains open to such measures.

Disclaimer   

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided. 

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