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Investors Remain Cautious on Bitcoin’s Outlook

UM Editor

November 27, 2024 at 5:44 pm

Bitcoin Option Expiry on December 27 May Trigger Significant Movement

On Tuesday, Nick Forster, the founder of Derive—a decentralized on-chain options protocol with a total trading volume of $7.1 billion—shared insights in emailed comments. He highlighted the so-called call-put skew index related to Bitcoin’s upcoming option expiry on December 27. Following these developments, Bitcoin fell by 1.19% to close at $91,928.

(BTCUSD Daily Price Chart, Source: Trading View)

The call-put skew, which indicates market sentiment, measures the difference in implied volatility between call and put options. While the skew continues to reflect a dominance of calls over puts, it has shown some decline recently. Consequently, investors are closely monitoring the December 27 expiry, as the high-value Bitcoin options settlement could lead to significant price swings in either direction.

Forster estimated a 68% likelihood of Bitcoin declining by 16.03% to $81,493 or rising by 19.9% to $115,579 by December 27. However, there is also a smaller 5% probability of larger price movements, a potential 29.49% drop to $68,429 or a 41.83% surge to $137,645 within the same timeframe.

Additionally, Forster pointed out relative stability in Bitcoin’s volatility over the past week. The seven-day at-the-money implied volatility stood at 63%, while the 30-day level was at 55%. This narrow alignment suggests the market is bracing for substantial movements in the future.

Disclaimer   

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided. 

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