USDJPY: Bearish Pressure Builds Below 158.43 Pivot

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of USDJPY for October 09, 2026.

Technical Analysis of USDJPY

USDJPY Daily Chart Insight

(USDJPY Daily Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT5)

USDJPY is currently showing signs of recovery following a sharp decline from its July highs near 163.70, although the broader technical structure remains cautious. After rebounding from September lows around 153.00, the pair has recovered toward the 158.00 region, where buying momentum appears to be stabilising.

The price is trading near the rising red 16-period moving average (MA16) and the declining purple 50-period moving average (MA50), suggesting that short-term recovery momentum is confronting medium-term resistance. Meanwhile, the relatively flat blue 100-period moving average (MA100) remains above the current price near 159.70, reinforcing the broader overhead resistance.

The daily RSI stands at 53.68, indicating a modest recovery in bullish momentum without strong directional conviction. The daily outlook remains neutral with a recovering bias, although buyers must establish a sustained move above the 158.55–159.11 resistance region before a more convincing recovery toward the MA100 can develop.

Key Levels:

• Support 1 (157.42): Immediate support near the recent consolidation lows and the area surrounding the rising MA16. Holding this region would help preserve the recovery structure.
• Support 2 (156.29–156.85): A secondary support zone associated with previous price reactions during September’s recovery, where renewed buying interest could emerge.
• Support 3 (152.90–153.46): Major support surrounding the September swing lows, representing an important lower boundary of the broader recovery structure.
• Resistance 1 (158.55): Immediate resistance near recent daily highs, where previous recovery attempts have encountered selling pressure.
• Resistance 2 (159.11): A higher resistance area associated with previous price reactions during August and September.
• Resistance 3 (159.68–160.25): A major overhead resistance zone encompassing the relatively flat MA100 and previous swing highs, representing a significant obstacle to a broader bullish reversal.

USDJPY 2-Hour Chart Analysis

(USDJPY 2-Hour Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT5)

USDJPY is currently consolidating with a slightly bearish short-term bias after failing to sustain its recent recovery above the 158.40 region. The price has slipped below the red 16-period moving average (MA16) and the purple 50-period moving average (MA50), both of which are flattening around 158.00–158.15, highlighting a loss of immediate bullish momentum.

However, the blue 100-period moving average (MA100) continues to slope gradually upward below the market, providing underlying support near the 157.80 region. Recent price action shows repeated fluctuations between approximately 157.85 and 158.40, suggesting that neither buyers nor sellers have established decisive control.

The 2-hour RSI stands at 48.14, slightly below the neutral threshold and consistent with weakening buying pressure. While the broader recovery structure remains partially intact above the MA100, a sustained breakout from the current consolidation range is required to establish the next directional move.

Breakout Scenarios:

• Bullish continuation is a possible scenario, triggered by a decisive break and hold above 158.40–158.43. Such a move could restore short-term buying momentum and expose the next resistance around 158.68, followed by the previous swing-high region near 158.95.
• Bearish correction is a possible scenario, triggered by a failure to defend 157.85 and a sustained move below the MA100 support region. This would weaken the recent consolidation structure and potentially expose 157.58, followed by the next support near 157.30.

USDJPY Pivot Indicator

(USDJPY 30-Minute Chart, Source: Trading Central)

USDJPY is currently trading around 158.01, below the main pivot resistance at 158.43, maintaining a bearish intraday preference despite signs of stabilising momentum. Recent price action shows a sharp downward move followed by a modest rebound, although the pair has yet to recover the pivot level needed to invalidate the immediate downside outlook.

The RSI stands at 51.57, indicating relatively balanced momentum with a slight bullish inclination, while the MACD remains marginally negative at -0.06, suggesting that downside momentum is weakening but has not decisively reversed. With prices remaining below the main pivot, the immediate technical structure continues to favour downside risks toward the identified support levels unless buyers regain control above 158.43.

• Bearish Breakdown: As long as USDJPY remains below 158.43, the bearish intraday preference remains intact. Further selling pressure could push the pair toward the first downside target at 157.41, followed by 157.17 if the initial support fails. A retreat in RSI from its current 51.57 reading, accompanied by MACD remaining below zero, would strengthen the bearish scenario.
• Bullish Reversal: A decisive recovery and sustained move above 158.43 would challenge the prevailing bearish preference and potentially trigger a rebound toward the first upside target at 158.84, followed by 159.08. Stronger RSI momentum above its current 51.57 reading, together with a MACD recovery into positive territory from -0.06, would provide additional confirmation of improving bullish momentum.

Disclaimer Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.