Tech Earnings & AI Capex Take Center Stage

Ultima Markets Daily Market Insights – 22 July 2026

Markets Rebound on Strong Exports and Tech Narrative

Global equity markets staged a firm rebound, buoyed by robust semiconductor export data out of South Korea and Taiwan alongside renewed momentum in the technology and artificial intelligence (AI) narratives. Concurrently, persistent Middle East geopolitical uncertainties triggered fresh safe-haven inflows, driving a sharp rally in gold prices.

Over in the foreign exchange market, intense selling pressure hit the Japanese Yen, pushing USD/JPY decisively above the 163.00 handle to record new 40-year lows not seen since 1986.

Looking ahead, market focus turns squarely to this week’s heavy slate of mega-cap tech earnings, kickstarting today with Alphabet, Tesla, and IBM.

• AI Capex Under the Microscope: Investors are prioritizing corporate guidance on AI capital expenditure (Capex).
• Geopolitical & Energy Overhead: Earlier tech sell-offs were driven by Middle East escalation and energy risk concerns, which threatened to constrain AI infrastructure spending.

With 77 S&P 500 companies reporting today, this week represents the most comprehensive test yet for both AI spending trajectories and broader U.S. corporate profitability. Consequently, today’s earnings releases are set to dominate broad market price action.

Equities Outlook: US Indices Face Critical Tests

Nasdaq 100 (NAS100): Bearish Setup Keeps Recovery Under Test

Despite today’s rebound, the technical setup on the Nasdaq 100 remains tilted toward short-term bearish pressure following its recent breakdown.

NAS100, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

On the 4-hour chart, the index recently broke down from a converging descending triangle, characterized by a sequence of lower highs. Furthermore, a bearish EMA crossover remains active.

Near-term price action is set to test resistance around the 29,000 – 29,300 zone alongside the 4-hour EMAs.

Upcoming earnings reports will determine whether this rally evolves into a genuine recovery or succumbs to renewed selling pressure—particularly if post-earnings guidance highlights growing AI Capex concerns.

S&P 500 (US500): Consolidating Above 7,500?

The S&P 500 has reclaimed its position above the key 7,500 level, though the broader trend remains in a consolidation phase.

SP500, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

Much like the Nasdaq 100, the deluge of corporate earnings reports this week will directly test the benchmark index. From a technical perspective, 7,500 remains the pivotal boundary:

• Bearish Scenario: A decisive break below the 7,500 baseline would signal a deeper technical correction.
• Bullish Scenario: Holding firmly above 7,500 maintains a moderate upward bias, though near-term gains appear capped beneath the 7,590 overhead resistance barrier at this stage.

Technical Takeaway: Overall, upside potential for U.S. indices remains technically capped, signaling that bulls may be stepping back. The market now looks to corporate earnings to bolster investor confidence, warranting a cautious stance in the interim.

Commodities Outlook: Gold Rallies on Safe-Haven Demand

Gold (XAU/USD): Descending Triangle Breakout Targets $4,100 Retest

Spot gold posted strong gains yesterday, sharply rebounding from its earlier low near $4,000. This rally was primarily fueled by safe-haven demand and a firm defense of the $4,000 structural support floor.

XAUUSD, H2 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

Technically, gold has successfully broken out of its recent descending triangle and cleared the broader $4,000 – $4,100 range box, leaving the immediate outlook promising. Monitor for a potential technical retest of the $4,100 breakout level.

As long as price action holds firmly above this newly established support zone, the near-term bias remains “buy on dips.” A clean hold above this level could unlock open space toward the $4,200 handle.

Market Summary & Key Highlights Today

Global markets rebounded as AI narrative strength and robust semiconductor exports cushioned equities, while persistent Middle East risks triggered safe-haven demand in Gold and pushed USD/JPY above 163.00 to a 40-year low. Market direction now hinges on whether today’s tech earnings can decisively bolster market sentiment.

What to Watch Today:

• Mega-Cap Tech Earnings & AI Capex: Earnings reports from Alphabet, Tesla, and IBM lead a wave of 77 S&P 500 quarterly results. Management commentary on AI capital expenditure will serve as the primary catalyst for equity market direction.
• Gold Retest at $4,100: Following a successful descending triangle breakout above $4,050 and $4,100, observe whether gold holds $4,100 as new support to confirm a continuation toward higher targets.

Disclaimer

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.