US CPI Eases Bolstered Sentiment; BoC & PPI Next

Ultima Markets Daily Market Insights – 15 July 2026

Market Sentiment Rebounds as U.S. Inflation Eases

Global financial markets experienced a major shift in risk sentiment following the release of the U.S. June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.

• U.S. headline inflation fell from 4.2% down to 3.5% annually, marking its first decline in five months.
• US Core inflation down to 2.6% vs prior 2.9% and market consensus of 2.8%.

This drops instantly cooled aggressive market fears regarding further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Following the data release, the futures market showed the probability of a September Fed rate hike dropping from 76% down to 57%. U.S. Treasury yields also pulled back sharply across the curve.

This changing macroeconomic backdrop put heavy selling pressure on the US Dollar, while spot gold and major equity markets rallied. However, the market remains highly attentive, with the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) report scheduled for release tonight to provide further clarity on inflation trajectories.

CPI Keeps Dollar Below 101.00

The US Dollar emerged as the primary loser following the inflation report as immediate Fed hike expectations eased significantly, underperforming against major currencies, particularly commodity-linked currencies like the AUD and CAD.

USDX, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

The technical outlook for the dollar remains the same as covered earlier, facing heavy structural pressure below the 101.00 handle. The index has shifted into a clearer range-bound environment, with the 101.00 level now expected to act as solid overhead resistance.

Near-term momentum remains tilted to the downside unless tonight’s PPI data provides a major hawkish surprise.

AUD/USD: Reversal Confirmed, Focus on 0.7000

As a primary commodity-linked currency, the Australian Dollar was one of the biggest gainers following the broad dollar selloff.

AUDUSD, H2 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

The potential bottoming and technical reversal structure covered in our earlier sessions has now been officially confirmed.

AUD/USD has broken sharply higher, turning the previous resistance structure at 0.6960 into a newly established support floor. Immediate technical resistance stands at the 0.7000 psychological handle.

The near-term intraday strategy remains to buy the dip against the 0.6960 support line, targeting a sustained break back above 0.7000.

Precious Metals Gold: Falling Yields Offer Relief

Spot gold found immediate technical relief from the cooling U.S. inflation data where the dollar and bond yields eased, managing to bounce away from a major test of the $4,000 psychological baseline.

XAUUSD, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

The technical breakdown below the $4,050 zone yesterday had kept the short-term focus tilted toward downside risks. However, the sharp retreat in U.S. Treasury yields and the weaker dollar have helped gold multi-hour buyers step back into the market, with the psychological level at $4,000 holding as a strong structural floor.

If tonight’s PPI data continues to show cooling inflation pressures, gold will have a solid opportunity to build a permanent consolidation base above the $4,000 support floor.

Reclaiming and closing above the $4,050 level on a daily basis remains the key prerequisite for confirming a broader technical rebound.

Bank of Canada Preview: USDCAD Reversal Targets 1.4000

The Canadian Dollar is showing strong buying momentum heading into the Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate announcement and Monetary Policy Report today. Current market consensus heavily expects the BoC to hold its benchmark policy rate steady at 2.25% for the sixth consecutive meeting.

While Canadian headline inflation previously bumped up to 3.2% due to Middle East energy shocks, core inflation measures have remained anchored close to 2%. Governor Tiff Macklem has noted that the bank will look through war-related short-term energy spikes unless they spread broadly across the consumer basket.

USDCAD Analysis

With the central bank is expect to kept is rate and hold on to a neutral stance, the impact on the Canadian Dollar may be limited, while the near-term technical setup and the dollar momentum likely to dominates the scene.

USDCAD, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

Technically, the bearish reversal for USD/CAD has been confirmed following a decisive structural breakdown past the 1.4150 support floor.

The pair is now facing immediate overhead resistance within the 1.4100 – 1.4150 matrix. With the technical path of least resistance pointing downward, the broader structural target for sellers remains focused on a retest of the major 1.4000 psychological support zone.

Market Summary & What to Watch Today

Global financial markets shifted gears dramatically on Tuesday as a weaker-than-expected U.S. CPI report sparked a widespread risk-on rally.

This macro pivot hammered the US Dollar Index well below the 101.00 resistance mark, fueled a confirmed bullish reversal in AUD/USD toward 0.7000, and triggered a major structural breakdown in USD/CAD below 1.4150 ahead of the Bank of Canada rate decision. Concurrently, falling yields cushioned Gold, keeping its vital $4,000 psychological floor perfectly intact for a solid near-term bounce.

What to Watch Tonight:

1. U.S. PPI Inflation Data: Tonight’s wholesale price data will serve as a crucial confirmation tool. A cooling PPI will solidify this week’s lower inflation narrative, whereas any upside surprise could quickly give the dollar a lifeline back toward 101.00.
2. Bank of Canada Rate Decision: While a hold at 2.25% is heavily priced in, pay close attention to Governor Macklem’s commentary on how the bank plans to look through Middle East energy spikes, which will dictate CAD’s next structural trend.

Disclaimer

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.