Markets Open with Cautious Optimism; What’s For US Market & Gold?

Ultima Markets Daily Market Insights – 29 June 2026

Macro Drivers: Geopolitical Cooling and NFP Shift

Global markets are opening the week with a sense of cautious optimism. US equity-index futures have climbed, recovering from last week’s heavy bear close, following reports that the US and Iran have stepped back from further military escalation.

Investors should expect lower volatility throughout Monday as the market recalibrates. Looking ahead, all eyes are laser-focused on the US monthly jobs report (NFP). Please note: Due to the US market closure on Friday for the Independence Day holiday, the NFP release has been rescheduled for Thursday, July 2.

This critical data release will be the ultimate gauge for whether the Federal Reserve will be forced to implement further interest rate hikes.

US Indices Eyes Support Levels

With markets awaiting Thursday’s NFP data to gauge the impact on Fed policy, we expect the near-term outlook for the US stock market to remain one of “cautious optimism.”

Nasdaq100 Analysis

While the Nasdaq 100 saw a rebound at the opening, the index remains fragile below the 30,000-point mark. Traders should exercise caution, as a failure to stabilize here could trigger another leg down toward the 28,700 support area.

NAS100, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

Technically, the index remains under pressure below 30,000; if it fails to regain this level, the current macro backdrop could keep the index trapped in a corrective or consolidating wave.

S&P500 Analysis

Similarly, the S&P 500 index found support near 7,350 and saw a modest rebound. However, resistance remains firm at the 7,500 level.

SP500, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

For the near-term, we expect the index to remain range-bound, likely leading to further consolidation within this technical setup.

Gold: Fights for $4,000 level

Gold is currently holding the critical $4,000 psychological support level. While we have seen some buying pressure return as the US dollar experiences a minor reprieve, near-term upside remains capped below $4,100.

XAUUSD, H2 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

The intraday outlook is cautiously bullish as short-term price patterns suggest a developing uptrend. For intraday strategies, we look for “dip buying” opportunities near the $4,000 area.

However, we remain patient regarding the upside; we prefer to wait for a clear breakout and consolidation above $4,100 before shifting to a fully bullish outlook.

US Dollar: Remain Elevated

The US dollar enters the week on a slightly softer footing as geopolitical anxiety moderates. However, the prevailing trend remains bullish. With the NFP report looming on Thursday, the dollar is likely to consolidate as traders await fresh labor market signals to confirm if the Fed’s tightening cycle has more room to run.

USDX, H4 Chart | Ultima Markets MT5

For the dollar index, our bias remains bullish, though we are slightly cautious regarding near-term pullback risks. For now, we are monitoring whether the 101.00 level can hold; if broken, the next major support level is 100.00. We continue to favor a “buy the dip” strategy.

Disclaimer

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.