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NFP and CPI to Shape Fed’s H1 Rate Cut Expectations
The core trading logic this week will revolve around the timing of a potential pivot to easing by the world’s two major central banks. In the U.S., the ADP employment figures and the ISM Services PMI will set the stage for Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report, where wage growth will be the key determinant for the Federal Reserve’s rate cut expectations.
In Europe, flash CPI and retail sales data will together test the health of the economy under high interest rates, influencing the European Central Bank’s policy rhythm.
Key Event to Watch:
1. U.S. February ISM Manufacturing PMI – Monday
The February ISM Manufacturing PMI will test the sustainability of the U.S. economic “soft landing” narrative. The market will focus on the prices and employment sub-components. In January, the index unexpectedly jumped to 52.6, its highest level since August 2022 and well above the market’s expectation of 48.5. If the February data continues this strong trend, it could spark concerns about a rebound in manufacturing inflation.
2. Eurozone February CPI Flash Estimate – Tuesday
The Eurozone will release its preliminary CPI data for February. If core inflation, particularly in the services sector, shows stickiness, it would push back against expectations for an ECB rate cut and provide support for the euro. Conversely, a continued downward trend would reinforce the ECB’s dovish stance.
3. U.S. February ADP Employment Data – Wednesday
The U.S. will release the “mini non-farm” ADP data. After adding only 22,000 jobs in January, far below expectations, the February report will be closely watched. If ADP employment shows resilience, it will strengthen the Federal Reserve’s “no rush to cut” position. On the other hand, if the data is weak, especially in conjunction with the ISM Services report on the same day, it could ignite rate cut expectations.
4. U.S. February Non-Farm Payrolls Report – Friday
Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report is the ultimate market catalyst for the week. The market’s primary focus within the report will be on the growth of average hourly earnings. If wage growth is hotter than expected, it would shatter the market’s optimism for a near-term Fed rate cut, potentially triggering a sharp rally in the U.S. dollar and putting pressure on gold and stocks.
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